September is the weakest month of the year for stocks with the S&P 500 Index averaging a decline of 1.2%, based on data from the past five decades.

Stock Market Outlook for September 3, 2024

September is the weakest month of the year for stocks with the S&P 500 Index averaging a decline of 1.2%, based on data from the past five decades.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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SPDR S&P North American Natural Resources ETF (AMEX:NANR) Seasonal Chart

Invesco S&P 500 Enhanced Value ETF (AMEX:SPVU) Seasonal Chart

JPMorgan U.S. Value Factor ETF (AMEX:JVAL) Seasonal Chart

iShares U.S. Dividend and Buyback ETF (AMEX:DIVB) Seasonal Chart

BMO MSCI Canada Value Index ETF (TSE:ZVC.TO) Seasonal Chart

BMO US High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ETF (TSE:ZWS.TO) Seasonal Chart

Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (NASD:HAIN) Seasonal Chart

JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASD:JBLU) Seasonal Chart

Carnival Corp. (NYSE:CCL) Seasonal Chart

Invesco Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend ETF (AMEX:DJD) Seasonal Chart

SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE) Seasonal Chart

BMO Covered Call Dow Jones Industrial Average Hedged to CAD ETF (TSE:ZWA.TO) Seasonal Chart

SPDR MSCI ACWI IMI ETF (AMEX:SPGM) Seasonal Chart

National HealthCare Corp. (AMEX:NHC) Seasonal Chart

Methode Electronics, Inc. (NYSE:MEI) Seasonal Chart

Group I Automotive Inc. (NYSE:GPI) Seasonal Chart

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) Seasonal Chart

Amphenol Corp. (NYSE:APH) Seasonal Chart

The Markets

Stocks drifted higher in the final session of August as the typical jovial bias that surrounds the Labor Day holiday supported prices into the final session of the month. The S&P 500 Index produced a gain of just over one percent, still remaining within a zone of implied resistance between 5622 and 5658, representing the July 17th downside gap. Hint of a short-term peak persists as the bulls show their reluctance adding to risk at current heights. The threat of an intermediate-term double-top pattern below the all-time high recorded during the summer rally period through the first half of July remains apparent, a chart setup that would set the stage for the declines that are normal for stocks during the month of September. The 20 and 50-day moving averages at 5486 and 5503, respectively, provide initial points of support should a rollover around present levels commence. The zone loosely aligns with August 15th upside gap that saw these two variable hurdles broken as resistance. MACD and RSI can be seen rolling over, revealing a negative divergence versus price that highlights the waning of buying demand heading into the traditionally weak month for equity market performance in September. Caution in risk assets remains appropriate, particularly while within this period of seasonal volatility and while the fundamental backdrop appears uncertain.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

A monthly look at the large-cap benchmark

Tendencies for stocks in the month of September

Securities that have gained or lost in every September over their trading history

Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the investment implications that the results are portraying

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for September 3

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For the month ahead, September is the weakest month of the year for equity market returns. The S&P 500 Index has lost 1.2%, on average, in this last month of the third quarter over the past 50 years. The frequency of gains for the month is a mere 42%. Returns have ranged from a loss of 11.9% in September of 1974 to a gain of 8.8% in September of 2010. We provide greater insight on the setup and what to look for in the month ahead in our just released Market Outlook for September.

Just released…

Our monthly report for September is out, providing you with everything that you need to know to navigate the market through the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

Equity market tendencies in the month of September

US Dollar

The perfect recipe for Gold Miners to flourish

Health Care sector realizing an expansion of breadth

Yield spreads coming out of inversion

Money Managers ramping up their bond short exposure back toward a record extreme

Strength in the bond market bodes well for rate sensitive segments of the market

Natural Gas

Headline result of Retail Sales providing a skewed look at the health of the consumer

Visa certainly not corroborating the strength presented by July’s report on retail trade

Industrial production faring slightly better than average in July, but a couple of themes require attention in portfolio positioning

Manufacturers not upbeat about their prospects for the final months of the year

The second of the weakest two-week spans in the equity market

Election Year tendency for stocks

Market has yet to cross the threshold that characterizes periods of sustained volatility

Major indicators of risk sentiment rolling over

Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs

Positioning for the months ahead

Sector Reviews and Ratings

Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of September

Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in September

Subscribers can look for this 109-page report in their inbox and, soon, in the report archive.

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With the new month upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for September, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every September over their trading history. While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy. Below are the results:

And how about those securities that have never gained in this ninth month of the year, here they are:

*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned. We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered.

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.73.