Stock Market Outlook for September 9, 2024
An intermediate-term double-top pattern on the S&P 500 Index has become confirmed, warranting ongoing caution in portfolios during this period of seasonal volatility for stocks.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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BMO US High Dividend Covered Call ETF (TSE:ZWH.TO) Seasonal Chart
Invesco KBW Property & Casualty Insurance ETF (NASD:KBWP) Seasonal Chart
iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (NYSE:IAK) Seasonal Chart
iShares Core MSCI International Developed Markets ETF (AMEX:IDEV) Seasonal Chart
Starbucks Corp. (NASD:SBUX) Seasonal Chart
BP Amoco PLC (NYSE:BP) Seasonal Chart
Ameriprise Financial Inc. (NYSE:AMP) Seasonal Chart
Renaissance RE Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:RNR) Seasonal Chart
Chubb Ltd. (NYSE:CB) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF (NYSE:VIOV) Seasonal Chart
SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF (NYSE:FEZ) Seasonal Chart
Hillenbrand Inc. (NYSE:HI) Seasonal Chart
Amerco (NYSE:UHAL) Seasonal Chart
iShares Transportation Average ETF (NYSE:IYT) Seasonal Chart
Mastercard (NYSE:MA) Seasonal Chart
Lam Research Corp. (NASD:LRCX) Seasonal Chart
Agilent Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:A) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks sold off following the release of employment results for August, which showed that the labour market has stalled. The S&P 500 Index closed with a loss of 1.73%, continuing to roll over from implied resistance between 5622 and 5658, representing the July 17th downside gap. An intermediate-term double-top pattern is becoming confirmed as the benchmark breaks back below support at 20 and 50-week moving averages around 5500. The early August lows for the pattern is critical as failure to hold this short-term bottom would suggest a calculated downside target towards 4750. Ultimately, whether the August lows are poised to act as support or not, the chart setup continues to set the stage for the declines that are normal for stocks during the month of September. MACD remains on a sell signal after crossing back below its signal line in recent days, confirming the negative divergence versus price that has highlighted the waning of buying demand heading into the traditionally weak month for equity market performance in September. Caution in risk assets remains appropriate, particularly while within this period of seasonal volatility and while the fundamental backdrop appears uncertain.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- The change we are making in the Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
- US Employment Situation and the investment implications within
- Canada Labour Force Survey and the gravitation towards part-time employees
- Investor sentiment
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for September 9
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.15.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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