Stock Market Outlook for September 17, 2024
Last week’s rebound in the Technology sector wasn’t enough to mitigate the threat that the topping pattern on the chart of Semiconductors continues to portray.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Tootsie Roll Industries (NYSE:TR) Seasonal Chart
Altius Minerals Corp. (TSE:ALS.TO) Seasonal Chart
MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (NASD:MKTX) Seasonal Chart
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (NASD:IBKR) Seasonal Chart
Globus Medical, Inc. (NYSE:GMED) Seasonal Chart
The Simply Good Foods Co. (NASD:SMPL) Seasonal Chart
Equity Bancshares, Inc. (NYSE:EQBK) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks continue to firm from recent weakness as investors anticipate news from the FOMC this week that the rate cutting cycle is getting underway. The S&P 500 Index ended higher by just over a tenth of one percent, continuing to move above implied resistance at the 20 and 50-day moving averages and reaching back to horizontal resistance around 5650. The recovery continues to skew the look of the intermediate-term topping pattern that was charted from the recent rollover below the mid-July (summer rally) peak. The weakest part of September is still ahead, running through the last couple of weeks of the month, and it would be difficult to signal the all-clear to entertain a more risk-on perspective to portfolio allocations in the very near-term (next couple of weeks). We will err on the side of caution that the seasonal tendencies portray for the remaining days of September, but acknowledge that the technical framework is no longer lending itself to a bearish outcome as a base-case scenario. Investments denoted as Accumulate candidates in our chart books continue to work very well, while those indicated as ones to Avoid will obviously warrant scrutiny through the weeks ahead as we progress through this period of seasonal volatility for stocks and as the best six months of the year timeframe nears. The hurdles to watch for a directional bias for the intermediate-term trend are support at the 100-day/20-week moving average (5411) and downside gap resistance between 5622 and 5658; a break of either would likely continue the near-term direction of travel, either higher or lower. Until then, a narrowing consolidation span is the dominant pattern.
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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Our weekly chart books update, along with the list of all market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Other notes
- The Technology Sector
- The topping pattern in the Semiconductor industry
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.75.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
- No significant earnings scheduled for today.
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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