The S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 1.1% in the month of October over the past 50 years with a frequency of gains during the month of 60%.

Stock Market Outlook for September 30, 2024

The S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 1.1% in the month of October over the past 50 years with a frequency of gains during the month of 60%.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Companhia Vale do Rio Doce SA (NYSE:VALE) Seasonal Chart

Commercial Metals Co. (NYSE:CMC) Seasonal Chart

TTM Technologies, Inc. (NASD:TTMI) Seasonal Chart

Lear Corp. (NYSE:LEA) Seasonal Chart

Intevac, Inc. (NASD:IVAC) Seasonal Chart

Morgan Stanley A Share Fund (NYSE:CAF) Seasonal Chart

Nutanix, Inc. (NASD:NTNX) Seasonal Chart

Air Lease Corp. (NYSE:AL) Seasonal Chart

Global Industrial Company (NYSE:GIC) Seasonal Chart

Sealed Air Corp New (NYSE:SEE) Seasonal Chart

NLIndustries, Inc. (NYSE:NL) Seasonal Chart

Universal Technical Institute, Inc. (NYSE:UTI) Seasonal Chart

Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE:HOV) Seasonal Chart

Mueller Industries Inc. (NYSE:MLI) Seasonal Chart

FutureFuel Corp. (NYSE:FF) Seasonal Chart

California Amplifier, Inc. (NASD:CAMP) Seasonal Chart

The Markets

Stocks closed mildly lower on Friday as portfolio managers enacted final trades before the third quarter comes to a close on Monday. The S&P 500 Index ended down by just over a tenth of one percent, pulling back slightly from the fresh record high achieved in the previous session. Evidence of waning of near-term upside momentum can be seen. The benchmark remains above horizontal resistance that was broken last Thursday at 5650 and support remains well defined at the 100-day moving average (5466). Seasonality has us locked into a cautious view of stocks through the remaining days of September and the near-term evidence of upside exhaustion hints that we could still get another test lower before the end of the month and, possibly, into the start of the next. The groups denoted as Accumulate candidates in our weekly chart books continue to work very well and we will scrutinize our list of Avoid candidates carefully once we get beyond this normally weak period on the calendar that corresponds with end of quarter mean reversion.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark

Seasonal tendencies for the S&P 500 Index during the month of October

The Best Six Months of the Year performance for stocks

Securities that have gained or lost in every October over their trading history

Waning investor enthusiasm towards stocks

The change in margin debt for August

Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the categories within that continue to provide an appealing fundamental backdrop for investment

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The month of October is upon us (starting on Tuesday) and while often thought of as a weak period for equities given some notable meltdowns that have occurred (eg. October 1987), the month is, in fact, a positive month, on average, for stocks. The S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 1.1% in this first month of the fourth quarter over the past 50 years. The frequency of gains for the month is 60%. Returns have ranged from a loss of 21.8% in October of 1987 to a gain of 16.3% in October of 1974. We break down everything we are looking at and what to expect for the month(s) ahead in our just released Market Outlook for October. Signup now.

Just Released…

Our monthly report for October is out, providing you with everything that you need to know to navigate the market through the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

Equity market tendencies in the month of October

Normalization of the yield curve

Lack of seasonal rise in the US Dollar

Portfolio managers are putting cash in short-term funding facilities to work

Inflation expectations have been on the decline and are now the lowest level in years

Money managers hold a record short allocation to treasury bond futures

Interest Rate sensitive sectors

Gold and Gold Miners

Consumers showing little desire to take on leverage amidst the high cost of living

Delinquency rate on consumer loans

Discretionary Spending Momentum remains on par with the lowest level for this time of year on record

Retail Sales

Retailer inventories

Stall in the rise of home prices in America

Industrial Production and the possible implications for this November’s election

Setting up for the seasonal trade in the Semiconductor industry

Canadian Unemployment showing the second strongest increase on record

Start of respiratory illness season

Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs

Positioning for the months ahead

Sector Reviews and Ratings

Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of October

Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in October

Subscribers can look for this 113-page report in their inbox and, soon, in the report archive.

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With the new month upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for October, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every October over their trading history. While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy. Below are the results:

And how about those securities that have never gained in this tenth month of the year, here they are:

*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned. We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered.

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.83.