Stock Market Outlook for October 1, 2024
October, while volatile, is normally a positive month for stocks, but not so much in election years.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Eloro Resources Ltd. (TSE:ELO.TO) Seasonal Chart
Amerant Bancorp Inc. (NYSE:AMTB) Seasonal Chart
Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (NASD:DSGR) Seasonal Chart
Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLB) Seasonal Chart
DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (NYSE:DD) Seasonal Chart
HomeStreet, Inc. (NASD:HMST) Seasonal Chart
Kirkland’s, Inc. (NASD:KIRK) Seasonal Chart
Korn Ferry Intl (NYSE:KFY) Seasonal Chart
Juniper Networks (NYSE:JNPR) Seasonal Chart
Paychex, Inc. (NASD:PAYX) Seasonal Chart
Deere & Co. (NYSE:DE) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks ended higher on Monday as funds came into the market during the final minutes of trade for the third quarter. The S&P 500 Index closed with a gain of just over four-tenths of one percent, charting yet another fresh record closing high. Despite the record height, evidence of waning of near-term upside momentum remains. A lack of excitement in stocks is apparent with the benchmark above former resistance at 5650. Support remains well defined at the 100-day moving average (5472). Seasonality still gives an edge to cautious view of stocks in the near-term, particularly given the evidence of near-term evidence of upside exhaustion. The groups denoted as Accumulate candidates in our weekly chart books continue to work very well and we have already been scrutinizing our list Avoid candidates carefully now that we are moving out of the quarter-end mean reversion period in September.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Monthly look at the large-cap benchmark
- Election year tendency for stocks during the month of October
- Our weekly chart books update, along with the list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Other Notes
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for October 1
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bullish at 0.92.
Just Released…
Our monthly report for October is out, providing you with everything that you need to know to navigate the market through the month(s) ahead.
Highlights in this report include:
- Equity market tendencies in the month of October
- Normalization of the yield curve
- Lack of seasonal rise in the US Dollar
- Portfolio managers are putting cash in short-term funding facilities to work
- Inflation expectations have been on the decline and are now the lowest level in years
- Money managers hold a record short allocation to treasury bond futures
- Interest Rate sensitive sectors
- Gold and Gold Miners
- Consumers showing little desire to take on leverage amidst the high cost of living
- Delinquency rate on consumer loans
- Discretionary Spending Momentum remains on par with the lowest level for this time of year on record
- Retail Sales
- Retailer inventories
- Stall in the rise of home prices in America
- Industrial Production and the possible implications for this November’s election
- Setting up for the seasonal trade in the Semiconductor industry
- Canadian Unemployment showing the second strongest increase on record
- Start of respiratory illness season
- Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs
- Positioning for the months ahead
- Sector Reviews and Ratings
- Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of October
- Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in October
Subscribers can look for this 113-page report in their inbox and in the report archive.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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