Stock Market Outlook for October 7, 2024
The larger than average rise in employment for September, manipulated by seasonal adjustments, has opened up headwinds against stocks that were not apparent previous.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Global X China Financials ETF (NYSE:CHIX) Seasonal Chart
Raytheon Technologies Corp. (NYSE:RTX) Seasonal Chart
Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) Seasonal Chart
CRA International, Inc. (NASD:CRAI) Seasonal Chart
Vecima Networks Inc. (TSE:VCM.TO) Seasonal Chart
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (NYSE:GRBK) Seasonal Chart
S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) Seasonal Chart
JPMorgan BetaBuilders Europe ETF (AMEX:BBEU) Seasonal Chart
New Pacific Metals Corp. (TSE:NUAG.TO) Seasonal Chart
Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASD:TXRH) Seasonal Chart
Retail Opportunity Investmnt Corp. (NASD:ROIC) Seasonal Chart
Dolby Laboratories (NYSE:DLB) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard International Dividend Appreciation ETF (NASD:VIGI) Seasonal Chart
Safehold Inc. (NYSE:SAFE) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks jumped on Friday as investors reacted to a much stronger than expected payroll report for September. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by nine-tenths of one percent, curling higher from previous resistance, now support at 5669, along with the 20-day moving average that is presently hovering around the same level. Waning upside momentum remains apparent as MACD has crossed back below its signal line, giving up on the positive slope that had been apparent over the past few weeks. A lack of excitement in stocks is still apparent with the benchmark above former resistance at 5650. Fortunately, levels of support below remain plentiful, including the aforementioned horizontal hurdle, as well as major moving averages that are all positively sloped, giving the market the comfort to step in to buy stocks during what is still an uncertain backdrop, both seasonally and fundamentally. Seasonality still gives an edge to a cautious view of stocks in the near-term, particularly given the evidence of near-term upside exhaustion, and we are still looking towards a retracement lower to provide a reset before the normal end-of-year rally commences.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- US Employment Situation, what is driving activity, and the investment themes derived from the results
- Wages, the uptick in the cost of borrowing, and inflation hedges back on the table
- US Dollar Index
- Net Assets on the Fed’s Balance sheet falling to a multi-year low
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bearish at 1.03.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
- No significant earnings scheduled for today.
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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