November tends to be a strongly positive month for stocks with the S&P 500 Index gaining an average of 1.9%, based on performance from the past five decades.

Stock Market Outlook for November 1, 2024

November tends to be a strongly positive month for stocks with the S&P 500 Index gaining an average of 1.9%, based on performance from the past five decades.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. (NYSE:ETD) Seasonal Chart

MillerKnoll, Inc. (NASD:MLKN) Seasonal Chart

iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (NYSE:IWD) Seasonal Chart

iShares Global Industrials ETF (NYSE:EXI) Seasonal Chart

Corning, Inc. (NYSE:GLW) Seasonal Chart

Sun Life Financial Services of Canada, Inc. (TSE:SLF.TO) Seasonal Chart

Cameco Corp. (NYSE:CCJ) Seasonal Chart

Centene Corp. (NYSE:CNC) Seasonal Chart

AAON, Inc. (NASD:AAON) Seasonal Chart

International Paper Co. (NYSE:IP) Seasonal Chart

The Markets

Stocks closed sharply lower in the last trading session of October as a poor reaction to earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) weighed heavily on the Technology sector. The S&P 500 Index ended down by 1.86%, gapping below short term support at the rising 20-day moving average (5805). A level of resistance has been derived between Thursday’s open at 5775 and Wednesday’s close at 5816. The ultra-short-term topping pattern that was derived below resistance at 5870 has seen its downside projection easily fulfilled at 5745 and we will now be scrutinizing whether the 50-day moving average (5698) will support the benchmark out of this short-term slump. Despite the recent stall, this market is not showing any broader topping setups and there remains greater evidence of support than resistance over an intermediate-term timeframe, presenting characteristics of a bullish trend. What remains concerning to the prevailing path is the waning of upside momentum, something that we have seen more evidence of with another MACD sell signal in recent days; the momentum indicator has shown a negative divergence versus price through the current calendar year, highlighting the fading enthusiasm towards the risk profile that equities encompass. The risk-reward, broadly, remains unattractive, but this pullback should provide us with an entry point to the strength that is normal of the equity market through the last couple of months of the year. We continue to like the groups that are on our list of Accumulate candidates, but there are certainly segments of the market to Avoid. With the start of the best six months of the year for stocks slated to get underway, we will be seeking to use weakness to ramp up risk exposure, preferably when metrics of volatility/fear alleviate their rising path that has evolved over the past few months (see our commentary of the Volatility Index (VIX) in our November monthly report).

For the month ahead, as the best six months for stocks begins, November provides a good jump out of the gate. The S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 1.9% in this second to last month of the year over the past 50 years. The result is the strongest average monthly return of the year. The frequency of positive results for the month sits at 72%. Returns have ranged from a loss of 8.5% in November of 1987 to a gain of 10.8% in November of 2020. We provide further insights and prepare you for the month ahead in our just released monthly report for November.

Just Released…

Our monthly report for November is out, providing you with everything that you need to know to navigate the market through the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

Equity market tendencies in the month of November

VIX remaining elevated heading into the strongest time of the year for stocks

Dollar, Yields, and Stocks

Existing Home Sales

Seasonal trade in the Homebuilding industry

Consumers refraining from taking out loans

Weak loan activity, but strong credit market

Hope that interest rates will invigorate waning economic activity may be premature

Earnings Per Share (EPS) still expected to grow, but the trajectory of the change is waning

No evidence that the rise in interest rates weighed on market valuations, as we have seen in the past

How “on point” analysts are presently with their expectations

Largest September decline in Retail Sales in five years

Second strongest percentage increase in retailer inventories in decades

Spending momentum highly depressed heading into the end of the year

Longest trend of underperformance for the consumer discretionary sector since the years prior to the Great Financial Crisis

Retail stocks stuck heading into the holiday season

Boeing strike weighing heavy on Industrial Production and it is likely to get worse before it gets better

The historical impact of a weaker than average trend of Industrial Production on the Presidential Election

Precious Metals shining bright

Still “healthy” fundamental trends in Health Care

Peak of equity market buying demand

Investor enthusiasm towards stocks waning

Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs

Positioning for the months ahead

Sector Reviews and Ratings

Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of November

Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in November

Subscribers can look for this 126-page report in their inbox and, soon, in the report archive.

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With the new month upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for November, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every November over their trading history. While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy. Below are the results:

And how about those securities that have never gained in this eleventh month of the year, here they are:

*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned. We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

A look at the monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index

Tendencies for stocks in the month ahead

Securities that have gained or lost in every November over their trading history

Weekly jobless claims and the health of the labor market

A look ahead at what to expect from October’s Nonfarm Payroll report

Canada Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for November 1

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