Stock Market Outlook for December 19, 2024
Did the US Fed just kibosh the Santa Claus rally?
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSE:OIH) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:VWO) Seasonal Chart
Morguard Corp. (TSE:MRC.TO) Seasonal Chart
Enduro Metals Corporation (TSXV:ENDR.V) Seasonal Chart
Mogo Finance Technology Inc. (NASD:MOGO) Seasonal Chart
Pluri Inc. (NASD:PLUR) Seasonal Chart
Sernova Corp. (TSE:SVA.TO) Seasonal Chart
Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE:JWN) Seasonal Chart
Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (NYSE:SWK) Seasonal Chart
Magellan Aerospace Corp. (TSE:MAL.TO) Seasonal Chart
McEwen Mining Inc. (NYSE:MUX) Seasonal Chart
Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (NYSE:SAND) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (NYSE:EWH) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Did the US Fed just kibosh the Santa Claus rally? Stocks closed sharply lower following the two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday that revealed a higher rate outlook than what was anticipated, implying fewer rate cuts ahead. The large-cap benchmark ended down by almost three percent, slicing below support at the 20 (6024) and 50-day (5922) moving averages. Short-term horizontal support at 6035 was violated in a pronounced manner, quickly delivering on and surpassing the 5970 downside target that the move below the prevailing 65-point range from the first half of December suggested. On a intermediate-term basis, while the intermediate-term trend remains that of higher-highs and higher-lows, the first sign that the 50-day moving average was unable to stem the tide of selling pressures certainly is sufficient to raise concern. Major moving averages continue to show rising parallel paths and momentum indicators continue to gyrate predominantly above their middle lines, providing characteristics of a bullish trend that warrants a positive positive bias for now. Should we start to see major moving averages act as points of resistance, reason to conclude the shift of trend would be provided. Our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid remains appropriately positioned at this seasonally strong time of year, but our Avoid list has been growing in recent weeks given the fading of the election euphoria in the market.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The breakout of yields and the dollar
- A short-term oversold reading for stocks
- Sectors breaking below levels of significant support
- US Industrial Production and the investment implications within
- The struggle of shipping activity as a result of the manufacturing economy in recession
- Ongoing negative trend of Delivery Services stocks
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended, surprisingly, bullish at 0.80.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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