Stock Market Outlook for January 15, 2025
Commodity prices (and the stocks with exposure) perking up as inflation expectations rise.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (TSE:CNQ.TO) Seasonal Chart
Pan American Silver Corp. (TSE:PAAS.TO) Seasonal Chart
Jack In The Box, Inc. (NASD:JACK) Seasonal Chart
Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. (NYSE:CHT) Seasonal Chart
United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSE:BNO) Seasonal Chart
Cineverse Corp. (NASD:CNVS) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks traded mixed on Monday as funds continue to flow towards value laggards (eg. Energy, Materials, Industrials, Financials) that have lagged in recent weeks/months. The S&P 500 Index gained 0.11% on Tuesday, continuing to retrace back to horizontal support that was broken on Friday at 5850. The horizontal threshold presents the neckline to a head-and-shoulders topping pattern, a bearish setup that proposes a downside target of 5670. Superseding any patterns that can be picked out is just the mere appearance that resistance, such as around the 20-day moving average, is starting to have a greater influence than support. Reason to conclude the shift of trend has been provided. We continue to scrutinize the potential impact of this evolving shift on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid and we are expecting that our list will show more of a neutral appearance through the weeks ahead as segments that were previously noted as Accumulate candidates fall off and areas to Avoid are added.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- US Producer Prices (PPI)
- Services over Goods
- The breakout of an important gauge of inflation expectations
- Two factors that could exacerbate the seasonal rise in inflationary pressures through the first half of the year
- Commodity market perking up
- Agriculture stocks
- The action we are taking in the Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.80.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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