Stock Market Outlook for January 22, 2025
US Dollar pulling back to its significant breakout point, giving stocks a quick boost in the first day of the Trump presidency.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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American Express Co. (NYSE:AXP) Seasonal Chart
Range Resources Corp. (NYSE:RRC) Seasonal Chart
Canadian National Railway Co. (TSE:CNR.TO) Seasonal Chart
Garmin Ltd. (NYSE:GRMN) Seasonal Chart
WEX Inc. (NYSE:WEX) Seasonal Chart
Inter Parfums, Inc. (NASD:IPAR) Seasonal Chart
Oxford Industries Inc. (NYSE:OXM) Seasonal Chart
Antero Resources Corp. (NYSE:AR) Seasonal Chart
Invesco DB Energy Fund (NYSE:DBE) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks traded higher during the first session of the Trump presidency as investors took comfort in the fact that tariffs weren’t on the agenda on day one. The S&P 500 Index ended up by almost nine-tenths of one percent, continuing to moving above resistance around 20 and 50-day moving averages at 5924 and 5967, respectively, while encroaching back on the all-time high charted earlier in December. Short-term declining trendline resistance around 5975 has also been broken, removing a hurdle that the benchmark has persisted below over the past month. With the early January high at 6021 taken out, the target is back to the previous peak recorded a month and a half ago around 6100. Various metrics, such as the put-call ratio, are highlighting the emergence of complacency, which skews the risk-reward of the market in the near-term given the bullish bet that has been adopted. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the apparent rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid and we are still expecting that our list will show more of a neutral appearance through the weeks ahead as segments that were previously noted as Accumulate candidates fall off, potentially replaced by some value segments of the market, and as areas to Avoid are added.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The pullback in the US Dollar Index towards its breakout point
- Our weekly chart books update, along with our list of all segments of the market to Accumulate or to Avoid
- Other Notes
- Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- Canadian Dollar Index
- Investor Sentiment
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- Currencies
- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
- ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.75.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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