Stock Market Outlook for February 14, 2025
Another report on inflationary pressures in the economy highlighting the need for commodity exposure in portfolios at this seasonally strong time of year.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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iShares S&P/TSX Capped Utilities Index ETF (TSE:XUT.TO) Seasonal Chart
TXNM Energy, Inc. (NYSE:TXNM) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Utilities ETF (NYSE:RSPU) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (NYSE:VDC) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (NYSE:SPLV) Seasonal Chart
EQT Corp. (NYSE:EQT) Seasonal Chart
Wayfair Inc. (NYSE:W) Seasonal Chart
Canadian Tire Corp, Ltd. (TSE:CTC/A.TO) Seasonal Chart
Telus Corp. (NYSE:TU) Seasonal Chart
Forrester Research, Inc. (NASD:FORR) Seasonal Chart
Limoneira Co. (NASD:LMNR) Seasonal Chart
Northwest Natural Gas (NYSE:NWN) Seasonal Chart
Alliant Energy Corp. (NASD:LNT) Seasonal Chart
Dollarama Inc. (TSE:DOL.TO) Seasonal Chart
Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) Seasonal Chart
Kimberly Clark Corp. (NYSE:KMB) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed higher on Thursday as traders found comfort in the fact that Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement was not an immediate decree, but rather merely a memorandum examine the implementation of countervailing taxes on goods coming into the country in order to level the playing field on international trade. The S&P 500 Index jumped by just over one percent, moving marginally above the 6100 hurdle that has acted as a cap to upside momentum in the past couple of months. The benchmark is managing to remain resilient above 20 and 50-day moving averages, despite the apparent loss of excitement to buy around present heights. Momentum indicators have negatively diverged from price since the middle of last year, highlighting the waning enthusiasm investors had been expressing towards tech-heavy benchmarks, like this, amidst extreme valuations. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the apparent rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid and we have adopted more of a neutral stance as segments that were previously noted as Accumulate candidates fall off (eg. Technology) and as areas to Avoid are added.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Tendencies for stocks in the back half of February
- US Producer Price Index (PPI)
- The breakout of inflation expectations
- Commodity prices setup well to move higher during their period of seasonal strength
- The fundamentals behind the seasonal trade in the energy sector
- The third largest drawdown in Natural Gas stockpiles through the first six weeks of the year in the past decade
- Weekly jobless claims and the health of the labor market
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.95.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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