Stock Market Outlook for March 10, 2025
The S&P 500 Index closed the week below its 20-week moving average, a level that has not been definitively violated from a closing basis throughout the entire bull market trend that began in October of 2023.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Advantage Energy Ltd. (TSE:AAV.TO) Seasonal Chart
SunOpta, Inc. (TSE:SOY.TO) Seasonal Chart
BRP Inc. (NASD:DOOO) Seasonal Chart
Ovintiv Inc (TSE:OVV.TO) Seasonal Chart
ProShares Ultra Consumer Goods (NYSE:UGE) Seasonal Chart
Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE:DVN) Seasonal Chart
Obsidian Energy Ltd. (TSE:OBE.TO) Seasonal Chart
Camtek Ltd. (NASD:CAMT) Seasonal Chart
Immersion Corp. (NASD:IMMR) Seasonal Chart
Cenovus Energy Inc. (NYSE:CVE) Seasonal Chart
Texas Pacific Land Tr (NYSE:TPL) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production ETF (NYSE:PXE) Seasonal Chart
MamaMancini’s Holdings, Inc. (NASD:MAMA) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks stabilized slightly into the end of the week from the tariff driven selloff, but the trading action suggests that the uncertainty in the market and economy remains. The large-cap benchmark gained just over half of one percent after testing support around the 200-day moving average (5733). Despite the reprieve, a declining short-term trend remains intact now that the benchmark is below the trading range it was in previous between 5830 and 6100. A simple sign to suggest that the market is moving beyond this short-term declining path is if the benchmark is able to close above the high of the prior day, something that has not been seen since February 19th. At some point, a checkback of resistance at the declining 50-day moving average (5982) is reasonable and likely, at which point the true health of the intermediate-term trajectory of stocks can be determined. Markets that are showing greater resistance than support must be avoided, a framework, on an intermediate-term scale, we have not seen yet. Momentum indicators on the daily chart have negatively diverged from price since the middle of last year, highlighting the waning enthusiasm investors had been expressing towards tech-heavy (Mag-7) benchmarks, like this, amidst extreme valuations. For now, the drawdown in the market can still be viewed as healthy and ordinary within a bull market, by any measure, but some critical levels below will warrant scrutiny, such as 5700 on the S&P 500 and 73,000 for Bitcoin. Below these thresholds, more dire scenarios for risk assets must be considered. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the apparent rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid and we have adopted more of a neutral stance as segments that were previously noted as Accumulate candidates fall off (eg. Technology) and as areas to Avoid are added.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark and when the more meaningful signal to flip bearish over an intermediate-term timeframe would be triggered
- The slope of earnings expectations
- Market valuation
- The downfall of the Economic Surprise Index, highlighting that analysts may be offside with their views
- US Employment Situation and the investment implications within
- The growth in wages as a result of the move towards higher paying jobs in the manufacturing sector
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bullish at 0.91.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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