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Stock Market Outlook for March 28, 2025

The US Trade Deficit remains at an extreme as businesses seek to front-run the imposition of tariffs.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

China Yuchai Intl Ltd. (NYSE:CYD) Seasonal Chart

China Yuchai Intl Ltd. (NYSE:CYD) Seasonal Chart

Sohu.com Ltd. (NASD:SOHU) Seasonal Chart

Sohu.com Ltd. (NASD:SOHU) Seasonal Chart

Lassonde Industries, Inc. (TSE:LAS/A.TO) Seasonal Chart

Lassonde Industries, Inc. (TSE:LAS/A.TO) Seasonal Chart

Light & Wonder Inc. (NASD:LNW) Seasonal Chart

Light & Wonder Inc. (NASD:LNW) Seasonal Chart

Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASD:META) Seasonal Chart

Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASD:META) Seasonal Chart

Summit Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:SMC) Seasonal Chart

Summit Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:SMC) Seasonal Chart

Portage Biotech Inc. (NASD:PRTG) Seasonal Chart

Portage Biotech Inc. (NASD:PRTG) Seasonal Chart

Westshore Terminals Investment Corp. (TSE:WTE.TO) Seasonal Chart

Westshore Terminals Investment Corp. (TSE:WTE.TO) Seasonal Chart

PennantPark Investment Corp. (NYSE:PNNT) Seasonal Chart

PennantPark Investment Corp. (NYSE:PNNT) Seasonal Chart

Western Asset Global High Income Fund Inc. (NYSE:EHI) Seasonal Chart

Western Asset Global High Income Fund Inc. (NYSE:EHI) Seasonal Chart

NN, Inc. (NASD:NNBR) Seasonal Chart

NN, Inc. (NASD:NNBR) Seasonal Chart

Service Corp. (NYSE:SCI) Seasonal Chart

Service Corp. (NYSE:SCI) Seasonal Chart

NetEase.com, Inc. (NASD:NTES) Seasonal Chart

NetEase.com, Inc. (NASD:NTES) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks showed difficulty shaking off the negative sentiment that was derived from the announcement of auto tariffs on Wednesday, but end of quarter re-balancing is working to mitigate a more negative outcome for the time being. The S&P 500 Index slipped by a third of one percent, charting a rather indecisive doji candlestick on the day below long-term support around the 200-day moving average (5757).  The benchmark continues to intersect with levels around Monday’s upside gap (~5700) that we have identified as support, providing an important test in this rebound attempt in the market that has materialized in the back half of March; a break of the short-term pivot point would lead to the suggestion that the near-term oversold bounce in the market into quarter-end has reached a peak, resuming what is becoming a declining intermediate-term trajectory stemming off of February’s highs.  A check-back of the now declining resistance at the 50-day moving average (5907) remains our base case, at which point the true health of the intermediate-term trajectory of stocks can be determined, but we must be nimble with this target so long as headline risks remain elevated. Markets that are showing greater resistance than support over an intermediate-term timeframe must be avoided, a framework we have not been able to confirm, yet.  As we scrutinize the strength of the oversold bounce, 5748 is an important level to watch given that it represents the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the February/March pullback; the inability for the benchmark to get above this hurdle on this bounce would characterize a very weak recovery and indicative of a market that wants to move lower, below the lows that were charted around 5500.  We are still in this period of seasonal strength that runs through the end of March and into the month of April, therefore there is a bias to give this favourable timeframe the benefit of the doubt; the more likely time to see a resumption of the declining intermediate-term path for stocks is through the off-season that starts in May.  We continue to monitor the potential impact of the apparent rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid and we have adopted more of a neutral stance as segments that were previously noted as Accumulate candidates fall off (eg. Technology) and as areas to Avoid are added.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

  • The US Trade Deficit at an extreme
  • Shipping Volumes and Expenditures in the US
  • Baltic Dry Index
  • The weak performance of the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the downfall of Courier stocks
  • The trend of Business Applications amidst the tariff uncertainty
  • Weekly Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for March 28

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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.92.

 

Soon to be released…

We are busy placing the finishing touches on our extensive monthly report for April, providing you with everything that you need to know to navigate this market through the month(s) ahead.

Subscribers can look for this report, soon, in their inbox and in the report archive to follow.

Not signed up yet?  Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish.

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Humacyte, Inc. Seasonal Chart China Automotive Systems Seasonal Chart SoYoung International Seasonal Chart Katapult Holdings Seasonal Chart Xos Seasonal Chart LiqTech International Seasonal Chart Super League Enterprise, Inc. Seasonal Chart

 

S&P 500 Index

 

TSE Composite

 

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