Stock Market Outlook for April 4, 2025
The bond market is saying A LOT about where we are in this economic and stock market cycle.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. (NASD:TTSH) Seasonal Chart
Horizon Technology Finance Corp. (NASD:HRZN) Seasonal Chart
First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (NYSE:FDN) Seasonal Chart
Navient Corp. (NASD:NAVI) Seasonal Chart
M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE:MTB) Seasonal Chart
Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd. (NASD:PANL) Seasonal Chart
Welltower Inc. (NYSE:WELL) Seasonal Chart
Zoetis Inc. (NYSE:ZTS) Seasonal Chart
Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (NASD:CVGI) Seasonal Chart
Sun Communities, Inc. (NYSE:SUI) Seasonal Chart
MFA Financial Inc. (NYSE:MFA) Seasonal Chart
AltaGas Ltd. (TSE:ALA.TO) Seasonal Chart
CALAMOS Convertible Opportunities and Income Fund (NASD:CHI) Seasonal Chart
Global X SuperDividend Alternatives ETF (NASD:ALTY) Seasonal Chart
High Income Securities Fund (NYSE:PCF) Seasonal Chart
Scholastic Corp. (NASD:SCHL) Seasonal Chart
Evertec, Inc. (NYSE:EVTC) Seasonal Chart
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp. (NASD:GLDD) Seasonal Chart
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (NYSE:USPH) Seasonal Chart
Newpark Resources, Inc. (NYSE:NR) Seasonal Chart
Canoe EIT Income Fund (TSE:EIT/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart
Transat AT Inc. (TSE:TRZ.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Trump’s “Liberation Day” certainly had a punch, liberating many market participants of gains in their investment portfolios. The S&P 500 Index closed down by 4.84%, breaking firmly below short-term horizontal support around 5500. The benchmark remains in a precarious state heading into the second quarter, holding levels below the 200-day moving average, a variable hurdle that traditionally provides a reasonable dividing line between long-term bullish and bearish trends. The prospects of a check-back of the declining resistance at the 50-day moving average (~5865) has not been taken off the table, but headline risks, obviously, have to be contended with in the very near-term. We are still in this period of seasonal strength that runs through the month of April, therefore there is a bias to give this favourable timeframe the benefit of the doubt; the more likely time to see the next evolution of the declining intermediate-term path for stocks is through the off-season that starts in May. We have not made any changes to our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio, yet, following our tactical positioning to take advantage of the positivity that surrounds the end of the quarter, but we are cognizant that the intermediate-term trajectory (most importance to us in our work) is under significant threat. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the apparent rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid and we have adopted more of a neutral stance as segments that were previously noted as Accumulate candidates fall off (eg. Technology) and as areas to Avoid are added.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Indications of a near-term low in stocks
- Improving risk-reward for stocks from the decline in the US Dollar and Yields
- The deterioration of credit conditions
- Bonds over stocks
- The treasury yield curve
- Intermediate-term downside risks for key equity benchmarks, should strains persist
- Weekly jobless claims and the health of the labor market
- A look ahead at what to expect from March’s Non-Farm Payroll report
- Natural Gas
- Investor sentiment
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for April 4
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended overly bearish at 1.17.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
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No significant earnings scheduled for today.
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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