There is an extraordinary lockup in the economy that was apparent long before the tariff turmoil that needs to be solved in order to put stocks back on a sustainable rising path.

Stock Market Outlook for April 9, 2025

There is an extraordinary lockup in the economy that was apparent long before the tariff turmoil that needs to be solved in order to put stocks back on a sustainable rising path.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Suburban Propane Partners LP (NYSE:SPH) Seasonal Chart

Manhattan Associates, Inc. (NASD:MANH) Seasonal Chart

AZZ, Inc. (NYSE:AZZ) Seasonal Chart

Penske Automotive Group Inc (NYSE:PAG) Seasonal Chart

RGC Resources, Inc. (NASD:RGCO) Seasonal Chart

Baker Hughes Company (NASD:BKR) Seasonal Chart

iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth ETF (NASD:IJT) Seasonal Chart

Acushnet Holdings Corp. (NYSE:GOLF) Seasonal Chart

The Markets

Headline risks continue to dominate given the evolving tariff war that has every analyst and portfolio manager contemplating a full-blown economic recession (if not worse). After rising strongly early in the session, the S&P 500 Index closed down by 1.57% following news that the US will ramp up its tariff on China to a whopping 104%. An upside gap between 5100 and 5200 charted early in the Tuesday session failed to provide any type of support and back to the lows of recent days (~4800) the benchmark is reaching. These lows are a highly important zone for the market as not only has it represented our intermediate-term downside target, but it is also the lower-limit of ultra-long-term rising trend channel support (see our Market Outlook for April 8th). The trading action on the day has started to highlight resistance that has been imposed by the downside gaps charted in recent days, first at 5300, followed by the pre-tariff announcement low at 5500. The benchmark got within 30 points of the former hurdle at the highs of the day, only to fall victim to the headlines triggered panic thereafter. As has been pointed out, the benchmark remains in a precarious state heading into the second quarter, holding levels below the 200-day moving average, a variable hurdle that is now rolling over and providing a characteristic of an intermediate to long-term bearish trend. The 50-day moving average (~5802), which has been the upside target of ours on a check-back, is quickly converging on its 200-day in what looks to become a “death cross” in the days ahead. Unfortunately, this technical shock all comes during this period of seasonal strength that runs through the month of April, therefore we are biased to let this favourable timeframe show what it is capable of; the more likely time that the next evolution of the declining intermediate-to-long-term trend for stocks should occur is through the off-season that starts in May. We continue to leave our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio as is (as painful as it has been over the past few days given our intermediate-term neutral bias that has been desired), following our tactical positioning to take advantage of the positivity that surrounds the end of the quarter, but we are cognizant that the multi-month path of stocks (most importance to us in our work) is under significant threat and re-positioning will be required ahead. Stocks are massively oversold, therefore selling around present levels is inopportune, but sentiment is not giving the market room to alleviate this stretched position. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the apparent rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid and we have peeled back some of our Avoid listed candidates at the start of the week given how stretched to the downside that prices have become.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

Lockup of investment decisions

The vulnerability to the economy from the struggle of small businesses

The surge in volume in high-yield bonds and the deterioration in the credit market

The change in Consumer Credit

Investor sentiment and investment manager equity exposure

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for April 9

Not signed up yet? Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish.