The S&P 500 Index just recorded the 11th largest single session gain in the past 100 years.

Stock Market Outlook for April 10, 2025

The S&P 500 Index just recorded the 11th largest single session gain in the past 100 years.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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C3.ai Inc. (NYSE:AI) Seasonal Chart

MannKind Corp. (NASD:MNKD) Seasonal Chart

Box, Inc. (NYSE:BOX) Seasonal Chart

Gladstone Capital Corp. (NASD:GLAD) Seasonal Chart

Nebius Group N.V. (NASD:NBIS) Seasonal Chart

The Markets

Stocks surged on Wednesday as headlines crossed that Donald Trump would pause the full implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, instead opting for a 10% baseline rate for the majority of countries around the globe. The exception was China, who will see its import tax increased to 125% for retaliating against Trump’s first move in this evolving trade war. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by 9.52%, recording the 11th strongest single session return in the past 100 years. Back in 2008, amidst the slide into the Great Financial Crisis, the benchmark achieved two instances of 10%+ single session returns, but, while they stalled the short-term slide, they didn’t bring a halt to the intermediate-term decline as traders sold into the recovery to take down overall portfolio risk. This is likely the outcome that will be seen in the market this time around, as well. Prior to the days leading into the Great Financial Crisis, you would have to look back to the 1930’s amidst the onset of the depression and then the start of World War 2 to see other similar single session gyrations as what was recorded on Wednesday. Obviously, the precedent is not desired. The benchmark appears to be bouncing from significant intermediate to long-term support at 4800 (the low that was recorded on Monday), presenting a highly important zone for the market. This has been our intermediate-term downside target for the market benchmark given the significance of the zone from a technical perspective (see our Market Outlook for April 8th). Gap resistance that was charted through the end of last week at 5300 has been closed/broken and now resistance at the pre-tariff announcement low at 5500 is being tested. There is a cap over this market in the range between 5500 and 5800 that would likely require a catalyst to break; without one, look for the sellers to step in around this zone. As has been pointed out, the benchmark remains in a precarious state heading into the second quarter, holding levels below the 200-day moving average, a variable hurdle that is now rolling over and providing a characteristic of an intermediate to long-term bearish trend. Unfortunately, this technical shock has come during this period of seasonal strength that runs through the month of April, therefore we are biased to let this favourable timeframe show what it is capable of; the more likely time that the next evolution of the declining intermediate-to-long-term trend for stocks should occur is through the off-season that starts in May. We continue to leave our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio as is and are happy to see most of the loss that our tactical position recorded over the past week has been eliminated, but we are cognizant of the need to do something ahead to mitigate the threat that the intermediate-term trend is portraying. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid and we had peeled back some of our Avoid listed candidates at the start of the week given how stretched to the downside that prices had become, preparing for the near-term recovery that has now been realized.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

The uptick of funds using short-term lending facilities amidst the equity market downturn

Net Assets on the Fed’s balance sheet

Producers of Oil not seeming to like the recent collapse of prices

Demand fundamentals for gasoline fading

Wholesale Sales and Inventories

What the decline in Wholesale Inventories over the past couple of years had to say about the state of the economy

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