Stock Market Outlook for April 11, 2025
The Volatility Index is showing signs of upside exhaustion, which could/should lend itself to a short-term low in stocks; intermediate-term, however, the market has a lot of healing to do.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF (NYSE:XHS) Seasonal Chart
Align Technology, Inc. (NASD:ALGN) Seasonal Chart
Strategic Education, Inc. (NASD:STRA) Seasonal Chart
ClearSign Combustion Corp. (NASD:CLIR) Seasonal Chart
Natera, Inc. (NASD:NTRA) Seasonal Chart
PJT Partners Inc. (NYSE:PJT) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Dynamic Software ETF (NYSE:IGPT) Seasonal Chart
ReposiTrak Inc. (NYSE:TRAK) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
The volatility in the equity market continues following the 11th strongest single session gain for the S&P 500 Index in the past 100 years on Wednesday. The S&P 500 Index ended lower on Thursday by 3.46%, peeling back some of the euphoric return charted in the session prior. The huge moves in the market are reminiscent of a bear market slide as investors rapidly price the market according to the uncertain conditions of the day. The benchmark is holding significant intermediate to long-term support at 4800 (the low that was recorded on Monday), presenting a highly important zone for the market. This has been our intermediate-term downside target for the market benchmark given the significance of the zone from a technical perspective (see our Market Outlook for April 8th). Gap resistance that was charted through the end of last week at 5300 is being revisited, but the more formidable hurdle is still the gap resistance charted from the breakdown of the pre-tariff announcement low at 5500. There is a cap over this market in the range between 5500 and 5800 that would likely require a catalyst to break; without one, look for the sellers to step in around this zone. As has been pointed out, the benchmark remains in a precarious state heading into the second quarter, holding levels below the 200-day moving average, a variable hurdle that is now rolling over and providing a characteristic of an intermediate to long-term bearish trend. Unfortunately, this technical shock in the market has come during this period of seasonal strength that runs through the month of April, therefore we are biased to let this favourable timeframe show what it is capable of before taking action; the more likely time that the next evolution of the declining intermediate-to-long-term trend for stocks should occur is through the off-season that starts in May. We continue to leave our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio as is, but we are cognizant of the need to do something ahead to mitigate the threat that the intermediate-term trend is portraying. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid and we had peeled back some of our Avoid listed candidates at the start of the week given how stretched to the downside that prices had become, preparing for the near-term recovery that has started to be realized following Wednesday’s recovery.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The upside exhaustion that the VIX is showing and the Short VIX trade
- US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the investment implications within
- Commodities
- Weekly Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for April 11
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.13.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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