Stock Market Outlook for April 15, 2025
When the semiconductor industry shows an underperforming trend versus the Technology sector, generally, it does not bode well for stocks or the economy.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Western Alliance Bancorp. (NYSE:WAL) Seasonal Chart
Trisura Group Ltd. (TSE:TSU.TO) Seasonal Chart
VICI Properties, Inc. (NYSE:VICI) Seasonal Chart
Central Valley Community Bancorp (NASD:CWBC) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed higher on Monday as traders found relief in the fact that the Trump administration provided tariff relief on computers, smartphones, and semiconductors, highlighting the flexibility in the president’s “America first” strategy. The S&P 500 Index ended higher by eight-tenths of one percent, continuing to reach towards the pre-tariff announcement lows around 5500, a potential point of resistance. The benchmark is holding significant intermediate to long-term support at 4800 (the low that was recorded a week ago on Monday), presenting a highly important zone for the market. There is a cap over this market in the range between 5500 and 5800 that would likely require a catalyst to break; without one, look for the sellers to step in around this zone. As has been pointed out, the benchmark remains in a precarious state heading into the second quarter, holding levels below the 200-day moving average, a variable hurdle that is now rolling over and providing a characteristic of an intermediate to long-term bearish trend. Unfortunately, this technical degradation in the market has come during this period of seasonal strength that runs through the month of April, therefore we are biased to let this favourable timeframe show what it is capable of before taking action; the more likely time that the next evolution of the declining intermediate-to-long-term trend for stocks should occur is through the off-season that starts in May. We continue to leave our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio as is, but we are cognizant of the need to do something ahead to mitigate the threat that the intermediate-term trend is portraying. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid, but we have been finding things to buy amidst this market tumult.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Underperforming trend of the semiconductor industry generally does not bode well for the broader market/economy
- The Technology sector
- Our weekly chart books update, along with our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Other Notes
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bearish at 1.01.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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