Stock Market Outlook for April 28, 2025
Transportation stocks failed to participate in Friday’s broad market gain, providing a troubling sign for the market and the economy moving forward.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Kellanova (NYSE:K) Seasonal Chart
Equitable Group Inc. (TSE:EQB.TO) Seasonal Chart
Brown & Brown Inc. (NYSE:BRO) Seasonal Chart
Rollins, Inc. (NYSE:ROL) Seasonal Chart
Crocs, Inc. (NASD:CROX) Seasonal Chart
Dorman Products, Inc. (NASD:DORM) Seasonal Chart
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE:ASPN) Seasonal Chart
Apple, Inc. (NASD:AAPL) Seasonal Chart
MFS Municipal Income Fund (NYSE:MFM) Seasonal Chart
New Flyer Industries Inc. (TSE:NFI.TO) Seasonal Chart
Westport Innovations, Inc. (TSE:WPRT.TO) Seasonal Chart
Kimball Electronics, Inc. (NASD:KE) Seasonal Chart
Pinterest Inc. (NYSE:PINS) Seasonal Chart
Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT) Seasonal Chart
Roku, Inc. (NASD:ROKU) Seasonal Chart
Northern Technologies Intl Corp. (NASD:NTIC) Seasonal Chart
Charter Communications Inc. (NASD:CHTR) Seasonal Chart
Infosys Technologies Ltd. (NYSE:INFY) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
The bears continue to let loose of their grip on the market, allowing the S&P 500 Index to drift above a significant point of horizontal resistance that has worked to constrain the upside momentum in recent days/weeks The S&P 500 Index ended higher by nearly three-quarters of one percent, continuing to progress above the declining 20-day moving average (5364) and violating overhead resistance at 5500. There remains an implied cap over this market in the range between 5500 and 5800 that would likely require a catalyst to break (eg. progress towards a trade deal with China); without one, look for the sellers to step in around this zone. As has been pointed out, the benchmark remains in a precarious state heading into the second quarter, holding levels below the 200-day moving average, a variable hurdle that is now rolling over and providing a characteristic of an intermediate to long-term bearish trend. Unfortunately, this technical degradation in the market has come during this period of seasonal strength that runs through the month of April, therefore we are biased to let this favourable timeframe show what it is capable of before taking action, particularly with how washed out stocks have recently become; the more likely time that the next evolution of the declining intermediate-to-long-term trend for stocks should occur is through the off-season that starts in May. We continue to leave our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio as is, but we are cognizant of the need to do something ahead to mitigate the threat that the intermediate-term trend is portraying. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid, but we are finding things to buy amidst this market tumult.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- The long-term level of significance to monitor for the S&P 500 during the offseason for stocks that starts in May
- The downfall of transportation stocks on Friday and metrics of shipping demand
- Baltic Dry Index
- The technicals of the Dow Jones Transportation Average heading into its period of seasonal weakness
- US Existing Home Sales, the significant rise in inventories, and the impact on prices
- Canadian Retail Sales
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.81.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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