Stock Market Outlook for April 30, 2025
Tariff front-running remained was highly influential in economic activity in March, resulting in a record first quarter increase in imports and the fourth largest decline in job openings.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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USANA Health Sciences, Inc. (NYSE:USNA) Seasonal Chart
Steris plc (NYSE:STE) Seasonal Chart
OSI Systems, Inc. (NASD:OSIS) Seasonal Chart
Prothena Corp. (NASD:PRTA) Seasonal Chart
A10 Networks, Inc. (NYSE:ATEN) Seasonal Chart
BMO Equal Weight U.S. Health Care Hedged to CAD Index ETF (TSE:ZUH.TO) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSE:VOOG) Seasonal Chart
Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NASD:NTLA) Seasonal Chart
Chewy Inc. (NYSE:CHWY) Seasonal Chart
Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (NASD:ZM) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
News that the Trump administration had struck a trade deal with a currently unnamed country sent stocks slightly higher on Tuesday as the mend from the “Liberation Day” selloff continues. The S&P 500 Index added just less than six-tenths of one percent, continuing to progress above the declining 20-day moving average (5359) and staying afloat above resistance at 5500. There remains an implied cap over this market in the range between 5500 and 5800 that would likely require a catalyst to break (eg. progress towards a trade deal with China); without one, look for the sellers to step in around this zone. As has been pointed out, the benchmark remains in a precarious state heading into the second quarter, holding levels below the 200-day moving average, a variable hurdle that is now rolling over and providing a characteristic of an intermediate to long-term bearish trend. Unfortunately, this technical degradation in the market has come during this period of seasonal strength that runs through the month of April, therefore we have been biased to let this favourable timeframe play out before taking action, particularly with how washed out stocks have recently become; the more likely time that the next evolution of the declining intermediate-to-long-term trend for stocks should occur is through the off-season that starts in May. We continue to leave our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio as is, but we are cognizant of the need to do something ahead to mitigate the threat that the intermediate-term trend is portraying. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid, but we are finding things to buy amidst this market tumult.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Case Shiller Home Price Index
- US International Trade In Goods and the record deficit that was recorded through the first quarter
- Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the investment implications within
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.88.
To be released…
We are busy placing the finishing touches on our extensive monthly report for May, setting subscribers up for the start of the off season for stocks. Members can look for this report, soon, in their inbox and in the report archive to follow.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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