Stock Market Outlook for May 12, 2025
Sentiment has corrected the bearish excesses that made it ideal to push back on (buy into) earlier in April, leaving the market in a less stable position that it has been in over the past month.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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ProShares Pet Care ETF (AMEX:PAWZ) Seasonal Chart
Teladoc Health, Inc. (NYSE:TDOC) Seasonal Chart
Trade Desk Inc. (NASD:TTD) Seasonal Chart
Shopify Inc. (TSE:SHOP.TO) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF (AMEX:SPMO) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF (NYSE:XSW) Seasonal Chart
Amplify Global Cloud Technology ETF (AMEX:AIVC) Seasonal Chart
Douglas Dynamics Inc. (NYSE:PLOW) Seasonal Chart
iShares India Index ETF (TSE:XID.TO) Seasonal Chart
ARK Innovation ETF (AMEX:ARKK) Seasonal Chart
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (NASD:IBB) Seasonal Chart
iShares Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF (AMEX:IGLB) Seasonal Chart
Renaissance IPO ETF (AMEX:IPO) Seasonal Chart
Intuit, Inc. (NASD:INTU) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (NYSE:MGK) Seasonal Chart
Invesco QQQ Trust (NASD:QQQ) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NASD:VCLT) Seasonal Chart
Fiverr International Ltd. (NYSE:FVRR) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P Telecom ETF (NYSE:XTL) Seasonal Chart
Sunrun Inc. (NASD:RUN) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks drifted around the flatline on Friday as investors braced for any news that may come out over the weekend when trade representatives between the US and China meet in Switzerland. The S&P 500 Index shed just less than a tenth of one percent, continuing to show reaction to a point of horizontal resistance at 5650. The 200-day moving average remains overhead and the consecutive doji indecision candlesticks charted during the past two sessions hints that traders are paying attention to the hurdle. There remains an implied cap over this market in the range between 5500 and 5800, corresponding with the span of the cloud of major moving averages that was broken in March, that would likely require a catalyst to break (eg. progress towards a trade deal with China); without one, look for the sellers to step in around this zone. We were enticed to use the strength through the start of May to start legging out of equity allocations heading into the offseason for stocks that begins at this time of year as we brace for the next evolution of the intermediate-term trend in the market that is still leaning negative. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid, but we have found rotation/buying candidates in recent weeks amidst this market tumult.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- The rebound of active investment manager exposure to stocks
- Canada Labour Force Survey and the investment implications within
- The change in Unemployment in Canada
- Investor sentiment
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for May 12
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.75.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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