Stock Market Outlook for May 14, 2025
Treasury yields rise following a cooler than anticipated report on inflationary pressures as the seasonal trade in the bond market derails early into this offseason for stocks.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Catalent, Inc. (NYSE:CTLT) Seasonal Chart
Beyond, Inc. (NYSE:BYON) Seasonal Chart
Sensus Healthcare, Inc. (NASD:SRTS) Seasonal Chart
CPI Card Group Inc. (NASD:PMTS) Seasonal Chart
Invesco India ETF (NYSE:PIN) Seasonal Chart
Orla Mining Ltd. (TSE:OLA.TO) Seasonal Chart
Perrigo Co. (NYSE:PRGO) Seasonal Chart
California Resources Corp. (NYSE:CRC) Seasonal Chart
Guidewire Software, Inc. (NYSE:GWRE) Seasonal Chart
Yelp Inc. (NYSE:YELP) Seasonal Chart
Formula One Group (NASD:FWONA) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks continued to move higher on Tuesday as investors embraced the pause on the most aggressive parts of the US tariff fight with China, as well as welcomed investments in the US economy from Saudi Arabia. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by just over seven-tenths of one percent, continuing to move past a number of points of resistance, including the 200-day moving average (5750). The implied cap over this market in the range between 5500 and 5800 (corresponding with the span of the cloud of major moving averages that was broken in March) has been broken and it will now be looked to as a zone of support on a subsequent pullback. The big point of focus in the market is obviously the all-time highs around 6100, a level that is just less than 4% away. The short-term trend stemming from the April low is positive, but the intermediate-term path (which is of most importance to us in our seasonal approach) remains under threat, particularly with nothing that burdened the equity market previous solved. Our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate continues to outnumber those that are worthy to Avoid, but, in the past week, we did find some areas that were worthy to downgrade as the risk of declines increase given the waning buying demand that had been apparent entering into this new week.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the investment implications within
- The derailment from the seasonal norm that is occurring in the bond market at this seasonally favourable time of year
- Heath Care: the ominous technical setup, what to accumulate and what to avoid at this normal strong time of year for sector constituents
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.77.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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