Stock Market Outlook for May 27, 2025
US Dollar Index pushing back below its prevailing multi-year trading range as the flight from domestic (US) assets resumes.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Cloudflare Inc. (NYSE:NET) Seasonal Chart
Bill.com Holdings Inc. (NYSE:BILL) Seasonal Chart
GDS Holdings Ltd. (NASD:GDS) Seasonal Chart
Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) Seasonal Chart
Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (NASD:MILN) Seasonal Chart
Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (NYSE:BOOT) Seasonal Chart
Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. (NYSE:BFAM) Seasonal Chart
Dynavax Technologies Corp. (NASD:DVAX) Seasonal Chart
Lithia Motors, Inc. (NYSE:LAD) Seasonal Chart
Yeti Holdings Inc. (NYSE:YETI) Seasonal Chart
Equity Residential Property Trust (NYSE:EQR) Seasonal Chart
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA) Seasonal Chart
Cable One, Inc. (NYSE:CABO) Seasonal Chart
Xcel Energy (NASD:XEL) Seasonal Chart
Iron Mountain, Inc. (NYSE:IRM) Seasonal Chart
Boston Beer Co. Cl A (NYSE:SAM) Seasonal Chart
IAMGOLD Corp. (NYSE:IAG) Seasonal Chart
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASD:PYPL) Seasonal Chart
American Water Works Co. Inc. (NYSE:AWK) Seasonal Chart
Resmed, Inc. (NYSE:RMD) Seasonal Chart
Note: Monday is holiday in the US (Memorial Day) and, as a result, our next report to subscribers will be released on Tuesday. Our weekly chart books will be updated, as per usual, on Sunday and will be available for download in the archive. The commentary pertaining to the chart book updates will be released on Tuesday. Have a great weekend everyone!
The Markets
Stocks slipped again on Friday as the US president weighed in with fresh tariff threats on Apple and the European Union. The large-cap benchmark closed down by two-thirds of one percent, continuing to react to a band of resistance between 5900 and 6100, effectively the all-time highs. The short-term rising trend stemming from the April lows remains that of higher-highs and higher-lows, but a break of the 50-hour moving average during Wednesday’s session suggests that the good times has come to an end and a digestive period heading into the end of the second quarter is commencing. Upside gap support around 5700 is the critical level to watch over the short-term timeframe given a violation of the implied level of support would lead to a resumption of the strains that the intermediate-term trend have been portraying since the start of the year. We continue to like the way our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate or to Avoid is positioned (although some adjustments identified below will be sought) and we remain on the lookout for new opportunities, either on the long or short side, heading through this off-season for stocks. On the seasonal timeline, the foreseeable threat to stocks is the mean reversion move lower that is common through the middle of June as quarter-end portfolio rebalancing is enacted. In the meantime, the Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio is effectively mitigating the stresses leaching into the market, maintaining the appropriate risk profile given the fundamental influences of the day and the seasonal dynamics that play out between May and October.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- US New Home Sales and the stocks of the builders
- New homes for sale at the highest level since 2007
- Forestry stocks and lumber
- Canadian Retail Sales
- The Canadian and US Dollars
- Copper
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for May 27
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.95.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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