Stock Market Outlook for May 29, 2025
The value of new orders of computers and related products are showing their strongest pace on record through the first four months of the year and this has us enticed to the various segments of the technology sector that are working.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Edison Intl, Inc. (NYSE:EIX) Seasonal Chart
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) Seasonal Chart
Federal Realty Investment Trust (NYSE:FRT) Seasonal Chart
Idacorp, Inc. (NYSE:IDA) Seasonal Chart
National Retail Properties Inc. (NYSE:NNN) Seasonal Chart
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Partners Inc. (NASD:CPRX) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks wavered just below the flat-line on Wednesday as investors waited for earnings results from tech-titan NVDIA after the closing bell. The S&P 500 Index closed down by nearly six-tenths of one percent, reacting, once again, to a band of resistance between 5900 and 6100, effectively the all-time highs. The move on the day, albeit slight, is providing hint that the short-term rising trend stemming from the April lows is coming to an end; last week’s break of the 50-hour moving average had suggested that the good times for stocks off of their mid-April low was over and a digestive period heading into the end of the second quarter is likely getting underway. Upside gap support around 5700 remains the critical level to watch over the short-term timeframe given a violation of the implied level of support would lead to a resumption of the strains that the intermediate-term trend has been portraying since the start of the year. We continue to like the way our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate or to Avoid is positioned, although we have significantly added to our list of Avoid candidates in the past week, presenting more of a balanced view of those groups that are working and worthy to buy into against those that are struggling to achieve buying demand and are at risk of faltering through the seasonally weak period in June. On the seasonal timeline, the foreseeable threat to stocks is the mean reversion move lower that is common through the middle of June as quarter-end portfolio rebalancing is enacted. In the meantime, the Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio is effectively mitigating the stresses that have bubbled up into the market, maintaining the appropriate risk profile, even with an elevated level of equity exposure than may have normally been sought heading towards the month of June.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- US Durable Goods Orders and the investment implications within
- Shipping volumes and expenditures
- Baltic Dry Index
- Transportation stocks
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.80.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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