Stock Market Outlook for June 26, 2025
The dynamics of supply and demand in the energy market over the past few weeks is causing us to rethink our thesis pertaining to Oil and Energy sector stocks for the months ahead.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Newell Brands Inc. (NASD:NWL) Seasonal Chart
First American Corp. (NYSE:FAF) Seasonal Chart
Tempur-Pedic Intl Inc. (NYSE:TPX) Seasonal Chart
CrossAmerica Partners LP (NYSE:CAPL) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as portfolio managers conduct their month/quarter-end trades to rebalance portfolios before the end of June. The S&P 500 Index was unchanged, remaining at the upper limit to the band of resistance between 5900 and 6100. An upside gap around 6025 was recorded on Tuesday, instantly plotting a point of support to shoot positive bets against as we near the start of the summer rally period that tends to see investors buy into the equity market starting on the 27th of June, on average. Support at the 20-day moving average (5989) has been confirmed in the past few sessions, a variable hurdle that has been unviolated throughout the bull-market rally from the April lows. While it appears that we will not be granted the opportunity to buy back into the market at lower levels during this first of the two timeframes that tends to account for the bulk of the weakness during the offseason for stocks, our desire is to still be exposed to risk (stocks) for the positive timeframe that normally follows the end of quarter weakness. Tuesday’s jolt confirms that the short-term rising trend is intact and no technical damage was achieved following the recent digestion off of the April low, providing a setup to be enticed to. We will be seeking to bump up risk exposure in portfolios back to the state that it was prior to the start of the normally weak timeframe on June 14th. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues to be appropriately positioned, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working in such areas as in the Technology, Communication Services, Financials, and Utilities sectors.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The Summer Rally for stocks
- US New Home Sales
- The high level of supply of new homes
- Homebuilding and Forestry stocks, along with the price of Lumber
- The dynamics of supply and demand in the Energy market and why it may be appropriate to change our thesis pertaining to the sector for the months ahead
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.80.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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