Stock Market Outlook for June 30, 2025
The S&P 500 Index has managed to gain an average of 1.1%, overall, in July, however, only 54% of periods over the past 50 years have produced gains.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
Subscribers Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.
Andrew Peller Ltd. (TSE:ADW/A.TO) Seasonal Chart
Brookfield Property Partners LP (NASD:BPYPO) Seasonal Chart
Check Point Software Technologies, Ltd. (NASD:CHKP) Seasonal Chart
Barrett Business Services, Inc. (NASD:BBSI) Seasonal Chart
Semler Scientific Inc. (NASD:SMLR) Seasonal Chart
Grid Dynamics Holdings Inc. (NASD:GDYN) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks ended higher on Friday as new highs in major benchmarks enticed buying demand into the final hours of the second quarter (Monday is the last session of the month). The S&P 500 Index closed higher by just over half of one percent, closing at a fresh all-time closing high after overcoming the previous peak charted on February 19th at 6144. The upside gap around 6025 that was recorded on Tuesday plots a point of support to shoot positive bets against as we get into the start of the summer rally period that tends to see investors buy into the equity market beginning on the 27th of June, on average. Support at the 20-day moving average (6015) has been confirmed in the past week, a variable hurdle that has been unviolated throughout the bull-market rally from the April lows. While we were not granted the opportunity to buy back into the market at lower levels through the first of the two timeframes that tends to account for the bulk of the weakness during the offseason for stocks, we have still added back our risk exposure for the positive timeframe that normally follows the end of quarter weakness. Tuesday’s jolt confirms that the short-term rising trend is intact and no technical damage was achieved following the recent digestion off of the April low, providing a setup to be enticed to. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues to be appropriately positioned, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working in such areas as in the Technology, Communication Services, Financials, and Utilities sectors.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- Tendencies for stocks during the month of July
- Securities that have gained or lost in every July over their trading history
- Investor sentiment/positioning
- Canada Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the investment implications within
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for June 30
Not signed up yet? Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish
Looking ahead, the month of July tends to warrant a positive bias for stocks, at least for the first half. Of course, we highlighted the summer rally period that spans the first few weeks of the month the other day (June 26 Market Outlook). While the back half of the month is not as favourable, the S&P 500 Index has managed to gain an average of 1.1%, overall, for the first month of the third quarter. However, only 54% of periods over the past 50 years have produced gains. Returns have ranged from a loss of 7.9% in July of 2002 to a gain of 9.1% in July of 2022. We provide more insight on the tendencies for the month ahead and how to tailor your portfolio for the start of the second half of the year in our just released monthly outlook for July.
Just Released…
Our monthly report for July is out, providing you with everything that you need to know to navigate the market through the month(s) ahead.
Highlights in this report include:
- Equity market tendencies in the month of July
- Trading the period of seasonal volatility ahead
- Gold
- The Summer Rally
- Banks entering their period of seasonal strength with a positive technical setup
- Canadian Banks
- Insuring your portfolio against third quarter volatility
- Streaming pricing power
- No vacancy for these stocks in portfolios
- Tight Yield Spreads
- Bond market firming support heading into a seasonally strong period
- Opportunities outside of the US
- Looking to defend against third quarter equity market volatility with Defense
- Looking at the periphery of the Artificial Intelligence trade
- Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs
- Positioning for the months ahead
- Sector Reviews and Ratings
- Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of July
- Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in July
Subscribers can look for this 110-page report in their inbox and, soon, in the report archive.
Not subscribed yet? Signup now to receive access to this report and all of the research that we publish.
With the new month upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for July, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every July over their trading history. While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy. Below are the results:
And how about those securities that have never gained in this seventh month of the year, here they are:
*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned. We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered. For a more extensive list of high frequency (70%+) gainers for the month of July, please refer to our monthly report.
Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.75.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
| Sponsored By... |
|
