Stock Market Outlook for July 11, 2025
The abnormal decline in the US Dollar Index through the first half of the year has driven the above average gains in stocks year-to-date, but this tailwind may be fading.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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PowerFleet, Inc. (NASD:AIOT) Seasonal Chart
AdvanSix, Inc. (NYSE:ASIX) Seasonal Chart
MBIA Inc. (NYSE:MBI) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (NYSE:KIE) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P/TSX Composite Low Volatility Index ETF (TSE:TLV.TO) Seasonal Chart
Watts Water Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:WTS) Seasonal Chart
Motorola Solutions Inc. (NYSE:MSI) Seasonal Chart
Construction Partners, Inc. (NASD:ROAD) Seasonal Chart
Core Alternative ETF (AMEX:CCOR) Seasonal Chart
BMO Government Bond Index ETF (TSE:ZGB.TO) Seasonal Chart
Bicycle Therapeutics plc (NASD:BCYC) Seasonal Chart
Donaldson Co, Inc. (NYSE:DCI) Seasonal Chart
Cintas Corp. (NASD:CTAS) Seasonal Chart
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (NYSE:HPE) Seasonal Chart
Reinsurance Group of America, Inc. (NYSE:RZB) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks reached back to the record highs that were recorded prior to the Independence Day holiday as investors continue to look past concerning developments on the tariff front and focus on the positivity that this time of year is known for amidst the notorious summer rally. The S&P 500 Index ended higher by just over a quarter of one percent, punching out a fresh closing high. Support at the cloud of major moving averages remains well defined, including the 20-day moving average (6121), a variable hurdle that has been unviolated throughout the bull-market rally from the April lows. Until some of the implied levels of support start to crack, this market still has the appearance of having an easier ability to excel above levels of resistance than to fail below levels of support. While overbought signals have triggered according to various metrics in recent days, this should be viewed as a sign of strength given that market participants continue to desire putting funds to work around these heights. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues to be appropriately positioned, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working in such areas as in the Technology, Communication Services, Financials, and Utilities sectors.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The start of the period of volatility for stocks during post-election years under a new president
- The dependency on the US Dollar and interest rates
- Market is still in risk-on mode
- Weekly jobless claims and the health of the labor market
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.75.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
- No Significant Earnings for Today
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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