Stock Market Outlook for July 28, 2025
We remain with a high level of risk (stocks) in portfolios, but our speculative side is leading us to believe that strength may start to peter off from here now that the upside target from the recent breakout in the broader market has been achieved.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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NVIDIA Corp. (NASD:NVDA) Seasonal Chart
Glacier Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:GBCI) Seasonal Chart
Wipro Ltd. (NYSE:WIT) Seasonal Chart
Ubiquiti Inc. (NYSE:UI) Seasonal Chart
Titan Mining Corp. (TSE:TI.TO) Seasonal Chart
Aritzia Inc. (TSE:ATZ.TO) Seasonal Chart
DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (NYSE:DD) Seasonal Chart
Marsh and McLennan Co. (NYSE:MMC) Seasonal Chart
Fortis, Inc. (TSE:FTS.TO) Seasonal Chart
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (NASD:CHRW) Seasonal Chart
Global X China Consumer ETF (NYSE:CHIQ) Seasonal Chart
National Bank of Canada (TSE:NA.TO) Seasonal Chart
BMO Canadian Dividend ETF (TSE:ZDV.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
The gains attributed to the summer rally timeframe keep stacking up as the S&P 500 index achieves further new heights. The large-cap benchmark closed higher by four-tenths of one percent, continuing to move above the tight short-term consolidation span between 6200 and 6300; the break of the 100-point range projected a move of the same magnitude (eg. higher to 6400), a target that, with Friday’s gain, has largely been achieved. While reason to sell from this summer rally timeframe have not yet been presented according to the many cues that we have highlighted in order to take down risk, our speculative side is leading us to believe that levels around the 6400 hurdle may be where the strength in stocks peters off before the volatile phase in equity markets takes hold. A few more days remain before the month of August begins, therefore there is still reason for a positive bias into month-end; the more appropriate timeframe to look to be cautious is in the final months of the third quarter (August/September). Support at the cloud of major moving averages remains well defined, including the 20-day moving average (6272), a variable hurdle that has been unviolated throughout the bull-market rally from the April lows. Until some of the implied levels of support start to crack, this market still has the appearance of having an easier ability to excel above levels of resistance than to fail below levels of support. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues thrive, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- US Durable Goods Orders and the investment implications within
- The pullback of shipping volumes and transportation stocks
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.86.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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