Stock Market Outlook for July 29, 2025
Signs of bottoming on the US Dollar Index applying pressure on risk assets (stocks) ahead of the volatile phase for stocks in August and September.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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BMO MSCI USA High Quality Index ETF (TSE:ZUQ.TO) Seasonal Chart
TELUS Corp. (TSE:T.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI World Index ETF (TSE:XWD.TO) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Canadian Dividend Index ETF (TSE:PDC.TO) Seasonal Chart
Compass Diversified Holdings (NYSE:CODI) Seasonal Chart
Old Republic Intl Corp. (NYSE:ORI) Seasonal Chart
BCE, Inc. (TSE:BCE.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed little changed on Monday as the strength attributed to the summer rally timeframe shows signs of petering off heading into a traditionally weaker period for equity market performance in August and September. The large-cap benchmark closed up by a mere two basis points (0.02%), sitting around the 6400 target suggested from the breakout of the short-term consolidation span between 6200 and 6300. While definitive reason to sell from this summer rally timeframe has not yet been presented, our speculative side is leading us to believe that levels around the 6400 hurdle may be where the strength in stocks ends before the volatile phase in equity markets takes hold. A few more days remain before the month of August begins, therefore there is still leeway for a positive bias into month-end; the more appropriate timeframe to look to be cautious is in the final months of the third quarter (August/September). Support at the cloud of major moving averages remains well defined, including the 20-day moving average (6282), a variable hurdle that has been unviolated throughout the bull-market rally from the April lows. Until some of the implied levels of support start to crack, this market still has the appearance of having an easier ability to excel above levels of resistance than to fail below levels of support. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues thrive, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis.
Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.
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- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Our weekly chart books update, along with our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Other Notes
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.84.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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