Stock Market Outlook for July 30, 2025
Hints of a defensive shift in the market are emerging.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Humana, Inc. (NYSE:HUM) Seasonal Chart
iShares Morningstar Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:ILCB) Seasonal Chart
Gen Digital Inc. (NASD:GEN) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed marginally lower on Tuesday as the strength attributed to the summer rally timeframe shows signs of petering off heading into a traditionally weaker period for equity market performance in August and September. The large-cap benchmark closed down by three-tenths of one percent, still sitting around the 6400 target suggested from the breakout of the short-term consolidation span between 6200 and 6300. Our speculative side has been leading us to believe that levels around the 6400 hurdle may be where the strength in stocks ends before the volatile phase in equity markets takes hold. A couple more days remain before the month of August begins, therefore there is still leeway for a positive bias into month-end; the more appropriate timeframe to look to be cautious is in the final months of the third quarter (August/September). Support at the cloud of major moving averages remains well defined, including the 20-day moving average (6291), a variable hurdle that has been unviolated throughout the bull-market rally from the April lows. Until some of the implied levels of support start to crack, this market still has the appearance of having an easier ability to excel above levels of resistance than to fail below levels of support. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues thrive, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Cues of a defensive shift in the market emerging
- Ratio of the Intermediate-term Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) over the S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Junk bonds over Investment Grade Corporates
- Case-Shiller Home Price Index and what is driving the aggregate change
- US International Trade in Goods
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.94.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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