Stock Market Outlook for August 1, 2025
August is a rather flat month for the S&P 500 Index with the large-cap benchmark averaging a gain of a mere 0.2% in this eighth month of the year.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Sysco Corp. (NYSE:SYY) Seasonal Chart
Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE:RL) Seasonal Chart
National Grid Group (NYSE:NGG) Seasonal Chart
21Vianet Group Inc. (NASD:VNET) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks struggled to hold onto gains for a second day as the strength attributed July’s summer rally loses steam. The large-cap benchmark closed down by just less than four-tenths of one percent, charting a reversal candlestick at the 6400 target suggested from the breakout of the short-term consolidation span between 6200 and 6300. Our speculative side has been leading us to believe that levels around the 6400 hurdle may be where the strength in stocks ends before the volatile phase in equity markets takes hold. The month of August is at our doorstep and looking for opportunities to peel back risk in portfolios has become appropriate in order to mitigate the volatility that impacts stocks in the final months of the third quarter (August/September). Support at the cloud of major moving averages remains well defined, including the 20-day moving average (6304), a variable hurdle that has been unviolated throughout the bull-market rally from the April lows. A break of some of the implied levels of support below would provide a definitive signal that the mid-year period of strength for stocks has come to an end and the notoriously erratic period for equity performance is underway. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues to be dialed in appropriately, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- A look at the monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index
- Tendencies for stocks in the month of August
- The action we are taking in the Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
- Securities that have gained or lost in every August over their trading history
- Weekly jobless claims and the health of the labor market
- A look ahead at what to expect from July’s Non-Farm Payroll report
- The highest put-call ratio since April
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for August 1
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Looking ahead, August is a rather flat month for the S&P 500 Index in this last month of the meteorological summer season. Over the past five decades, the large-cap benchmark has averaged a gain of a mere 0.2% in this eighth month of the year, which is the third weakest return on the calendar, lagging September’s 0.9% average drawdown and February’s 0.1% gain. Positive Augusts still outnumber negative ones with a gain frequency of 56%. Returns have ranged from a loss of 14.6% in August of 1998 to a gain of 11.6% in August of 1982. We provide further insight on what to look out for and how to position in our just released monthly report for August. Signup now
Just Released…
Our monthly report for August is out, providing you with everything that you need to know to navigate the market through the month(s) ahead.
Highlights in this report include:
- Equity market tendencies in the month of August
- Trading the period of seasonal volatility ahead
- Gold
- Start of the optimal holding period for the bond market
- Scrutinizing the credit market
- Junk bonds over treasuries
- Other cues to signal the shift to the start of period of volatility for stocks
- Reviewing the playbook for the equity market from here
- Fading strength in Industrial Production
- Playing Defense
- Beacon of light surrounding the Artificial Intelligence (AI) trade
- Hot summer placing pressure on the electrical grid
- Inflationary pressures subdued through H1, but upside risks in H2 can be seen
- Fundamentals to insurance stocks remain strong
- Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs
- Positioning for the months ahead
- Sector Reviews and Ratings
- Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of August
- Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in August
Subscribers can look for this 95-page report in their inbox and, soon, in the report archive.
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With the new month upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for August, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every August over their trading history. While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy. Below are the results:
And how about those securities that have never gained in this eighth month of the year, here they are:
*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned. We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered. For a more extensive list of high frequency (70% ) gainers for the month of July, please refer to our monthly report.
Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bearish at 1.03.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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