Stock Market Outlook for August 6, 2025
Short-term trend of the market appears to be shifting, aligned with seasonal norms.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Columbia Banking System, Inc. (NASD:COLB) Seasonal Chart
John Bean Technologies Corp. (NYSE:JBT) Seasonal Chart
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HTH) Seasonal Chart
Five Below, Inc. (NASD:FIVE) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed mixed on Tuesday as traders reacted to further concerning data on the economic front and position for the volatility that is notorious through the remainder of the third quarter. The large-cap benchmark closed down by nearly half of one percent, showing struggle around the 20-day moving average that was broken in Friday. Our speculative side has been leading us to believe that levels around the 6400 hurdle may be where the strength in stocks ends before the volatile phase in equity markets takes hold and, so far, this is proving to be correct. A gap fill around 6350 has played out following Friday’s abrupt downfall in prices, but no meaningful resumption of the upside trajectory has been achieved. Momentum indicators are rolling over from the most overbought levels since July of 2024, just prior to the volatility shock that evolved rapidly through the first week of August of last year. This is the time of year to be on your toes given that August is upon us, a well known volatile period that sees equity markets destabilize from their summer strength; looking for opportunities to peel back risk in portfolios has become appropriate in order to mitigate the erratic moves that impacts stocks in the final months of the third quarter (August/September). A good level to scrutinize on the downside is previous resistance at the February high around 6150 (approximately equivalent to the 50-day moving average) as a violation here would raise questions as to the legitimacy of the breakout in prices to fresh all-time highs through the summer rally period in July. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues to be dialed in appropriately, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis.
Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.
- Currencies
- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
- ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors
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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Our weekly chart books update, along with the list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Other Notes
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for August 6
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.86.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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