Stock Market Outlook for August 7, 2025
US stocks setting up to roll over, while Canadian stocks seeing new life thanks to this Accumulate listed candidate.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASD:SCVL) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard FTSE Canadian High Dividend Yield Index ETF (TSE:VDY.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed higher on Wednesday as news of Apple’s $100 Billion investment in the US attempted to rejuvenate waning momentum in the Technology sector. The S&P 500 Index closed up by nearly three-quarters of one percent, continuing to gyrate around the 20-day moving average that was broken on Friday. Our speculative side has been leading us to believe that levels around the 6400 hurdle may be where the strength in stocks ends before the volatile phase in equity markets takes hold and, so far, this is proving to be correct. A gap fill around 6350 continues to evolve following Friday’s abrupt downfall in prices, but no meaningful resumption of the upside trajectory has been achieved. Momentum indicators are rolling over from the most overbought levels since July of 2024, just prior to the volatility shock that evolved rapidly through the first week of August of last year. This is the time of year to be on your toes given that August is upon us, a well known volatile period that sees equity markets destabilize from their summer strength; looking for opportunities to peel back risk in portfolios has become appropriate in order to mitigate the erratic moves that impacts stocks in the final months of the third quarter (August/September). A good level to scrutinize on the downside is previous resistance at the February high around 6150 (approximately equivalent to the 50-day moving average) as a violation here would raise questions as to the legitimacy of the breakout in prices to fresh all-time highs through the summer rally period in July. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues to be dialed in appropriately, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- A look at breadth indicators and why the equity market rally off of the April low has not crossed into the sustainable threshold
- Renewed strength in the Canadian equity market
- US Vehicle Sales and the investment implications within
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.87.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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