September is the weakest month of the year for equity market returns: The S&P 500 Index has lost 0.9%, on average, in this last month of the third quarter over the past 50 years.

Stock Market Outlook for September 2, 2025

September is the weakest month of the year for equity market returns: The S&P 500 Index has lost 0.9%, on average, in this last month of the third quarter over the past 50 years.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (NYSE:VIG) Seasonal Chart

iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF (AMEX:IVLU) Seasonal Chart

Pulse Biosciences, Inc. (NASD:PLSE) Seasonal Chart

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NASD:GT) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF (NYSE:EWP) Seasonal Chart

Msc Industrial Direct Co. (NYSE:MSM) Seasonal Chart

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASD:ULTA) Seasonal Chart

Cathay Bancorp, Inc. (NASD:CATY) Seasonal Chart

SPDR S&P North American Natural Resources ETF (AMEX:NANR) Seasonal Chart

VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (AMEX:CRAK) Seasonal Chart

Revolve Group, Inc. (NYSE:RVLV) Seasonal Chart

Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE:GCI) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard Global Value Factor ETF (TSE:VVL.TO) Seasonal Chart

SPDR S&P 1500 Value Tilt ETF (AMEX:VLU) Seasonal Chart

iShares Transportation Average ETF (NYSE:IYT) Seasonal Chart

Sun Life Financial Services of Canada, Inc. (TSE:SLF.TO) Seasonal Chart

iShares U.S. Dividend and Buyback ETF (AMEX:DIVB) Seasonal Chart

BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call ETF (TSE:ZWP.TO) Seasonal Chart

Textron, Inc. (NYSE:TXT) Seasonal Chart

Prudential Financial Inc. (NYSE:PRU) Seasonal Chart

JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASD:JBLU) Seasonal Chart

Forward Air Corp. (NASD:FWRD) Seasonal Chart

Carnival Corp. (NYSE:CCL) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard Mega Cap Value ETF (NYSE:MGV) Seasonal Chart

Invesco Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend ETF (AMEX:DJD) Seasonal Chart

Global X MSCI SuperDividend EAFE ETF (NASD:EFAS) Seasonal Chart

SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE) Seasonal Chart

Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NSC) Seasonal Chart

BMO US High Dividend Covered Call ETF (TSE:ZWH.TO) Seasonal Chart

Globe Life Inc. (NYSE:GL) Seasonal Chart

Telecom Argentina (NYSE:TEO) Seasonal Chart

Methode Electronics, Inc. (NYSE:MEI) Seasonal Chart

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) Seasonal Chart

The Markets

Amidst indications that inflationary pressures are perking up and the economy/sentiment cooling, stocks took a dip on Friday, capping the month of August on a negative note. The large-cap benchmark ended down by just less than two-thirds of one percent, peeling back from the psychologically important 6500 level that was charted during the session prior. A curl back toward short-term support at the 20-day moving average (6417) can be seen, an important hurdle for the short-term trend of prices off of the April lows. Momentum indicators are still showing negative divergences versus price where lower-highs below July’s overbought extremes have been charted for RSI and MACD. The result gives strong evidence of buying exhaustion, once again lending itself to the onset of a digestion of prices aligning with the period of volatility for the equity market. As has been emphasized, this is the time to be on your toes given the well known volatile period that this time of year is notorious for. As equity markets destabilize from their summer strength, looking for opportunities to peel back risk in portfolios has become appropriate in order to mitigate the erratic moves that impacts stocks in the final months of the third quarter (August/September). The strategy remains to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) in the near-term, but take advantage of any volatility shocks (should they materialize) to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway in October. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues to be dialed in appropriately, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

A look at the monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index

Tendencies for stocks in the month ahead

Performance of equities during the two halves of September

Securities that have gained or lost in every September over their trading history

US International Trade and the pull-forward of activity that was seen in July

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for September 2

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Looking ahead, September is the weakest month of the year for equity market returns. The S&P 500 Index has lost 0.9%, on average, in this last month of the third quarter over the past 50 years. The frequency of gains for the month is a mere 44%. Returns have ranged from a loss of 11.0% in September of 2002 to a gain of 8.8% in September of 2010. We provide more insight on what to expect in the month ahead in our just released Monthly Report for September. Subscribe now

Just Released…

Our monthly report for September is out, providing you with everything that you need to know to navigate the market through the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

Equity market tendencies in the month of September

Gamma Exposure on the decline

Loss of leadership in the market

Investors moving into safe-havens

Money Managers ramping up their bond short exposure back toward a record extreme

Bond yields attractive versus stocks

Aerospace production flying high

Defense still defending portfolios

Sluggish July change in restaurant sales expressing an increasingly discerning consumer mentality

Insurance prices trending strongly higher through the period of seasonal strength for the stocks

Not just insurance, but broader financials showing strength

Broker-Dealers and Securities Exchanges

Streamers also showing pricing power

Natural Gas

The second of the weakest two-week spans in the equity market

New high engine struggling

Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs

Positioning for the months ahead

Sector Reviews and Ratings

Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of September

Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in September

Subscribers can look for this 104-page report in their inbox and, soon, in the report archive.

With the new month upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for September, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every September over their trading history. While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy. Below are the results:

And how about those securities that have never gained in this ninth month of the year, here they are:

*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned. We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered. For a more extensive list of high frequency (70% ) gainers for the month of July, please refer to our monthly report.

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.77.