Stock Market Outlook for September 5, 2025
The shallower than average decline in initial jobless claims over the past month suggests a weaker than average change in payrolls for August.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Griffon Corp. (NYSE:GFF) Seasonal Chart
Silicom Ltd. (NASD:SILC) Seasonal Chart
Home Bancorp, Inc. (NASD:HBCP) Seasonal Chart
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF (NYSE:SCHV) Seasonal Chart
BMO International Dividend Hedged to CAD ETF (TSE:ZDH.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks rallied on Thursday as yields pulled back ahead of the widely anticipated monthly payroll report that is slated to be released on Friday. The S&P 500 Index ended up by just over eight-tenths of one percent, moving higher from the level of short-term support around the 20-day moving average (6437) and intersecting with the all-time high charted in recent weeks around 6500. Momentum indicators are still showing negative divergences versus price where lower-highs below July’s overbought extremes have been charted for RSI and MACD. The result gives strong evidence of buying exhaustion, once again lending itself to the onset of a digestion of prices aligning with the period of volatility for the equity market. As has been emphasized, this is the time to be on your toes given the well known volatile period that this time of year is notorious for. As equity markets destabilize from their summer strength, looking for opportunities to peel back risk in portfolios has become appropriate in order to mitigate the erratic moves that impacts stocks in the final months of the third quarter (August/September). The strategy remains to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) in the near-term, but take advantage of any volatility shocks (should they materialize) to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway in October. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues to be dialed in appropriately, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- US Vehicles Sales
- Weekly Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market
- A look ahead at what to expect of the August Payroll report
- The seasonal trade in Natural Gas
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.94.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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