Stock Market Outlook for September 11, 2025
The surge in Oracle is benefiting our allocation in Software stocks at this seasonally strong time of year, but a rotation ahead may be warranted as the market nears its risk-on timeframe.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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InfuSystems Holdings, Inc. (AMEX:INFU) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P SmallCap Utilities & Communication Services ETF (NASD:PSCU) Seasonal Chart
Templeton Emerging Markets Fund, Inc. (NYSE:EMF) Seasonal Chart
Brand Leaders Plus Income ETF (TSE:HBF.TO) Seasonal Chart
Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. (NYSE:APLE) Seasonal Chart
Methanex Corp. (NASD:MEOH) Seasonal Chart
Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) Seasonal Chart
Erie Indemnity Co. (NASD:ERIE) Seasonal Chart
Community Bank Sys, Inc. (NYSE:CBU) Seasonal Chart
Manulife Financial Corp. (TSE:MFC.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
A surge in shares of Oracle (ORCL) and a benign read of aggregate inflationary pressures borne by producers was enough to elevate the S&P 500 Index to new heights on Wednesday, even though breadth on the session had a negative tilt. The S&P 500 Index ended up by three-tenths of one percent, holding above short-term support around the 20-day moving average (6460), but showing enough wobble intraday to suggest struggle in achieving incremental new buyers above the 6500 level. Momentum indicators continue to negatively diverge versus from price where lower-highs below July’s overbought extremes have been charted for RSI and MACD. The result gives evidence of buying exhaustion, once again lending itself to the onset of a digestion of prices aligning with the period of volatility for the equity market. As has been emphasized, this is the time to be on your toes given the well known volatile period that this time of year is notorious for. As equity markets destabilize from their summer strength, looking for opportunities to peel back risk in portfolios has become appropriate in order to mitigate the erratic moves that impacts stocks in the final months of the third quarter (August/September). The strategy remains to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) in the near-term, but take advantage of any volatility shocks (should they materialize) to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway in October. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues to be dialed in appropriately, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The jump in shares of Oracle (ORCL) and its impact on the Expanded Software ETF (IGV)
- US Producer Price Index (PPI) and where the impact of tariffs is growing
- Gold showing hints of waning upside momentum, but another precious metal is showing emerging strength to be enticed by
- Wholesale sales and inventories and what the sluggish pace of stockpiles has to say about where we are in the economic cycle
- The fundamental supply and demand backdrop to the seasonal trade in Agriculture this fall
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.79.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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