Stock Market Outlook for September 15, 2025
Despite equity benchmarks at record highs, traders are not all that enthusiastic about it.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp. (NYSE:BAH) Seasonal Chart
iShares Select Dividend ETF (NASD:DVY) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P MidCap Low Volatility ETF (AMEX:XMLV) Seasonal Chart
Air T, Inc. (NASD:AIRT) Seasonal Chart
Altius Minerals Corp. (TSE:ALS.TO) Seasonal Chart
MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (NASD:MKTX) Seasonal Chart
Tompkins Financial Corp. (AMEX:TMP) Seasonal Chart
Hartford Multifactor Small Cap ETF (AMEX:ROSC) Seasonal Chart
Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks took a breather in record high territory on Friday after another winning week. The S&P 500 Index ended essentially flat, holding above the 6500 level that had presented struggle in recent weeks. After weeks of holding close to short-term support at the 20-week moving average (6472), an elevation above the norm can be seen materializing, certainly pushing back on the contention for the weakness that the month of September is known for. As has been emphasized, this is the time to be on your toes given the well known volatile period that this time of year is notorious for and the weakest, most volatile, period within this timeframe is still ahead, running through the last couple of weeks of the month (the first half of September is normally positive). The strategy remains to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) in the near-term, but take advantage of any volatility shocks (should they materialize) to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway in October. We have picked our spots in the market to which we want to be exposed in our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid and the performance continues to be exceptional. Those themes that are enduring according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis keeps us focused and we are not concerned, at all, if the broad market weakness that is normal of September fails to materialize.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- The four sectors to continue to focus on in portfolio positioning
- Not seeing the type of risk aversion that is normal in the equity market during the month of September
- Investor enthusiasm towards stocks on the decline
- NYSE Advance-Decline Volume Line remains on the rise
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for September 15
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.80.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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