Stock Market Outlook for September 18, 2025
One of the largest August declines on record for housing starts highlights that the cost of borrowing remains a burden, but an alleviation of this headwind is likely to create investment opportunities ahead.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Chorus Aviation, Inc. (TSE:CHR.TO) Seasonal Chart
ePlus, Inc. (NASD:PLUS) Seasonal Chart
Rex American Resources Corp. (NYSE:REX) Seasonal Chart
Enghouse Systems Ltd. (TSE:ENGH.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks traded mildly lower on Wednesday as traders reacted to the outcome FOMC meeting. The S&P 500 Index ended down by a tenth of one percent, continuing to hold above the 20-day moving average (6498), the variable hurdle that has supported the short-term trend off of the April lows. The weakest, most volatile, period for the equity market is directly ahead, running through the last couple of weeks of the month (the first half of September is normally positive), leaving us with a cautious bias pertaining to broad equity exposure in the very near-term. The strategy remains to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) for now (over the next few weeks), but take advantage of any volatility shocks (should they materialize) to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway in October. We have picked our spots in the market to which we want to be exposed in our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid and the performance continues to be exceptional. Those themes that are enduring according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis keeps us focused and we are not concerned, at all, if the broad market weakness that is normal of September fails to materialize.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- US Housing Starts and the seasonal trade in the home builders this fall
- Consumer Loan activity
- Potential opportunities from the resumption of the rate cutting cycle and when to look to gain exposure
- The jump in bearish sentiment on Wednesday
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.07.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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