Stock Market Outlook for September 24, 2025
The loss of upside momentum in the cryptocurrency market hints that the same will follow in the equity market.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Peloton Interactive Inc. (NASD:PTON) Seasonal Chart
Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc. (NASD:ESQ) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSE:PPA) Seasonal Chart
Rockwell Automation (NYSE:ROK) Seasonal Chart
IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones SA (NYSE:IRS) Seasonal Chart
American Axle & Manufac. (NYSE:AXL) Seasonal Chart
Compass Minerals Intl, Inc. (NYSE:CMP) Seasonal Chart
Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks traded mildly lower on Tuesday as the notoriously weak timeframe associated with the period between the Jewish holidays of Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur gets underway. The large-cap benchmark ended down by nearly six-tenths of one percent, erasing the prior day’s gain. Support continues to hold at the 20-day moving average (~6546), the variable hurdle that has kept the short-term trend off of the April lows intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rolling over from overbought territory above 70 as buying exhaustion is hinted. The weakest, most volatile, period for the equity market is upon us, running through the last couple of weeks of the month (the first half of September is normally positive), leaving us with a cautious bias pertaining to broad equity exposure in the very near-term. The strategy remains to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) for now (over the next couple of weeks), but take advantage of any volatility shocks (should they materialize) to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway in October. We have picked our spots in the market to which we want to be exposed (including various technology subsectors) in our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid and the performance continues to be exceptional. Those themes that are enduring according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis keeps us focused and we are not concerned, at all, if the broad market weakness that is normal of September fails to materialize.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Margin debt at a record high, driving equity market performance
- Credit balances, a gauge of short positions, in investor accounts
- The stall in the cryptocurrency market and what it could portend to the equity market
- Energy sector industries showing a bullish setup
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.89.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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