Stock Market Outlook for September 29, 2025
Industrial production may be waning following its pre-tariff push, but Durable Goods Orders are remaining upbeat, supported by select themes that require focus in portfolios.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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CorVel Corp. (NASD:CRVL) Seasonal Chart
Stantec Inc (NYSE:STN) Seasonal Chart
Axos Financial, Inc. (NYSE:AX) Seasonal Chart
Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLB) Seasonal Chart
Rogers Communications, Inc. (TSE:RCI/B.TO) Seasonal Chart
VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE:MOO) Seasonal Chart
Fifth Third Bancorp (NASD:FITB) Seasonal Chart
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce SA (NYSE:VALE) Seasonal Chart
Forsys Metals Corp. (TSE:FSY.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:FXI) Seasonal Chart
Nutanix, Inc. (NASD:NTNX) Seasonal Chart
iClick Interactive Asia Group Ltd. (NASD:ICLK) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks snapped back into the end of the week as traders reacted positively to an inline read the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation via the core PCE Price Index. The S&P 500 Index ended up by six-tenths of one percent, bouncing from support around the 20-day moving average (~6568), the variable hurdle that has kept the short-term trend off of the April lows intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rolling over from overbought territory as buying exhaustion sets in. The weakest, most volatile, period for the equity market is upon us, running through the last couple of weeks of the month (the first half of September is normally positive), leaving us with a cautious bias pertaining to broad equity exposure in the very near-term. The strategy remains to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) for now (over the next couple of weeks), but take advantage of any volatility shocks (should they materialize) to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway in October. We have picked our spots in the market to which we want to be exposed (including various technology subsectors) in our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid and the performance continues to be exceptional. Those themes that are enduring according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis keeps us focused and we are not concerned, at all, if the broad market weakness that is normal of September fails to materialize.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- US Durable Goods Orders and the investment implications within
- Waning industrial production along with upbeat orders pressuring manufacturer inventories
- The change in shipping volumes and burden it is imposing on transportation stocks
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.78.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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