Stock Market Outlook for October 6, 2025
Treasury securities sold by the Fed in temporary open market operations just hit the lowest level in years last week. We’ll tell you what this means for stocks.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (AMEX:SCHD) Seasonal Chart
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (NASD:AXON) Seasonal Chart
iShares Global Materials ETF (NYSE:MXI) Seasonal Chart
ACT Energy Technologies Ltd. (TSE:ACX.TO) Seasonal Chart
ArcelorMittal SA (NYSE:MT) Seasonal Chart
Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. (NYSE:FCX) Seasonal Chart
Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE:RIO) Seasonal Chart
HudBay Minerals Inc. (TSE:HBM.TO) Seasonal Chart
Centene Corp. (NYSE:CNC) Seasonal Chart
Seagate Technology Holdings, Inc. (NASD:STX) Seasonal Chart
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (TSE:FVI.TO) Seasonal Chart
Trinity Industries Inc. (NYSE:TRN) Seasonal Chart
Danaher Corp. (NYSE:DHR) Seasonal Chart
Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (TSE:U/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart
Raytheon Technologies Corp. (NYSE:RTX) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (AMEX:PICK) Seasonal Chart
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE:HOV) Seasonal Chart
Algorhythm Holdings Inc. (NASD:RIME) Seasonal Chart
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (TSE:WFG.TO) Seasonal Chart
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF (AMEX:SPHD) Seasonal Chart
iShares U.S. Consumer Goods ETF (NYSE:IYK) Seasonal Chart
Keg Royalties Income Fund (TSE:KEG/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart
Bunge Global SA (NYSE:BG) Seasonal Chart
Retail Opportunity Investmnt Corp. (NASD:ROIC) Seasonal Chart
Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (NASD:WBA) Seasonal Chart
Cardinal Health, Inc. (NYSE:CAH) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed little changed on Friday as technology sector weakness was offset by strength in the utilities, health care, and financial sectors. The S&P 500 Index closed up by a single basis point (0.01%), holding above support around the 20-day moving average (~6627), the variable hurdle that has kept the short-term trend off of the April lows intact. The weakest, most volatile, period for the equity market through the back half of September has come to an end, but evidence of a bottoming setup on the volatility index hints that we may not be in the clear toward broad risk exposure, yet. The average (seasonal) peak for the so-called “fear gauge” is the end of October. Despite the transition out of the weakest two-week stretch of the year for stocks, the strategy remains the same, which is to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) for now (over the next couple of weeks), but take advantage of any volatility shocks (should they materialize) to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway at the end of October. We have picked our spots in the market to which we want to be exposed, both through and beyond the period of seasonal volatility, in our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid and the performance continues to be exceptional. Those themes that are enduring according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis keeps us focused and we are not concerned, at all, that the broad market weakness that is normal of this time of year has failed to materialize. We will continue to allow for the possibility of volatility to materialize in the month ahead and position the risk metrics of portfolios appropriately until a more ideal setup to reach out on the risk spectrum (eg. away from bonds/gold and towards our four desired sectors to be exposed) is revealed. The Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we oversee at Castlemoore continues to chart all-time highs and has been realizing some of the best performance that it has seen in years.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- Equal Weight S&P 500 ETF breaking above its recent consolidation range
- Treasury securities sold by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations scraping the bottom of the barrel, falling to the lowest level in years
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.84.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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