Stock Market Outlook for October 20, 2025
Despite all of the volatility, our “favoured-four” are still looking pretty good.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Global X Video Games & Esports ETF (NASD:HERO) Seasonal Chart
Allient Inc. (NASD:ALNT) Seasonal Chart
Teradyne, Inc. (NASD:TER) Seasonal Chart
iShares U.S. Industrials ETF (NYSE:IYJ) Seasonal Chart
Booking Holdings Inc. (NASD:BKNG) Seasonal Chart
Tapestry, Inc. (NYSE:TPR) Seasonal Chart
Badger Meter, Inc. (NYSE:BMI) Seasonal Chart
Carter Holdings Inc. (NYSE:CRI) Seasonal Chart
F5 Networks, Inc. (NASD:FFIV) Seasonal Chart
Open Text Corp. (TSE:OTEX.TO) Seasonal Chart
Dave & Buster’s Entertainment Inc. (NASD:PLAY) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF (NYSE:SPHB) Seasonal Chart
Boise Cascade Co. (NYSE:BCC) Seasonal Chart
Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (AMEX:PAVE) Seasonal Chart
Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) Seasonal Chart
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HLT) Seasonal Chart
NetGear, Inc. (NASD:NTGR) Seasonal Chart
Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (NASD:MPAA) Seasonal Chart
Sealed Air Corp New (NYSE:SEE) Seasonal Chart
West Fraser Timber Co., Ltd. (NYSE:WFG) Seasonal Chart
Genuine Parts Co. (NYSE:GPC) Seasonal Chart
Honeywell International, Inc. (NASD:HON) Seasonal Chart
Canfor Corp. (TSE:CFP.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Easing concerns pertaining to trade tensions between the US and China allow stocks to recover from recent weakness. The large-cap benchmark ended up by half of one percent, pinning itself to resistance at the 20-day moving average (~6674). The variable hurdle had kept the short-term trend off of the April lows intact. The 50-day moving average (6564) is presently attempting to mitigate a more serious downfall through the weeks ahead, but the more that the benchmark resists at the short-term variable hurdle, the weaker the longer-term threshold becomes. The volatility index continues to climb, aligned with seasonal norms, reaching the highest level since April as a bottoming pattern progresses. The suggestion remains that the market may not be in the clear toward broad risk exposure, yet. October is the month when fear/volatility hit a peak and, in an instant, the month is showing this unsettled state. The strategy has remained the same, which is to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) for now (over the next couple of weeks), but take advantage of the volatility shock to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway at the end of October. We have picked our spots in the market to which we want to be exposed, both through and beyond the period of seasonal volatility, in our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid and this will be an ideal starting point to build up allocations for the best six month of the year timeframe. We will continue to allow for the possibility of volatility to ramp up through the days/weeks ahead and position the risk metrics of portfolios appropriately until a more ideal setup to reach out on the risk spectrum (eg. away from bonds/gold and towards our four desired sectors to be exposed) is revealed. The Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we oversee at Castlemoore continues to be well positioned, outperforming the market.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- “Favoured-four” sectors still looking good
- Plotting this year’s equity market performance against our base case of how we anticipated the year would play out and the path that is more closely aligned with the year-to-date trend
- Below average consumer momentum heading into the holiday season
- The seasonal trade in Retail stocks
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for October 20
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.90.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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