Stock Market Outlook for October 23, 2025
Shocking downward revisions in loan activity suggest that the economy is within a recessionary state.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (NASD:BTAI) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Materials ETF (NYSE:VAW) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:XSD) Seasonal Chart
Arts-Way Manufacturing Co., Inc. (NASD:ARTW) Seasonal Chart
Zurn Water Solutions Corporation (NYSE:ZWS) Seasonal Chart
Krystal Biotech, Inc. (NASD:KRYS) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Dynamic Semiconductors ETF (NYSE:PSI) Seasonal Chart
State Street Corp. (NYSE:STT) Seasonal Chart
Vulcan Materials Co. (NYSE:VMC) Seasonal Chart
Wendy’s Co. (NASD:WEN) Seasonal Chart
Coherent Corp. (NYSE:COHR) Seasonal Chart
Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE:RS) Seasonal Chart
Johnson Controls Intl plc (NYSE:JCI) Seasonal Chart
Canopy Growth Corp. (NYSE:CGC) Seasonal Chart
iShares U.S. Small Cap Index ETF (CAD-Hedged) (TSE:XSU.TO) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth ETF (NYSE:IVOG) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P SmallCap Information Technology ETF (NASD:PSCT) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed lower on Wednesday as reaction to earnings in the Technology and Communication Services sectors has traders shying away from risk exposure. The large-cap benchmark ended down by just over half of one percent, reaching back to recent short-term resistance at the 20-day moving average (~6683). The variable hurdle had kept the short-term trend off of the April lows intact. The 50-day moving average (6583) has so far mitigated a more serious downfall as the pullback that many are hoping for in order to add to risk exposure for the end of the year fails to produce results of significance. The trends of both the volatility index and the US Dollar remain positive, aligned with seasonal norms, as investors remain on edge, providing a headwind to contend with. The suggestion continues that the market may not be in the clear toward broad risk exposure, yet. October is the time of year when fear/volatility hit a peak and the month is showing this unsettled state. The strategy has remained the same, which is to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) for now (over the next couple of weeks), but take advantage of the volatility shock to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway at the end of October. We have picked our spots in the market to which we want to be exposed, both through and beyond the period of seasonal volatility, in our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid and this will be an ideal starting point to build up allocations for the best six month of the year timeframe. We will continue to allow for the possibility of volatility to ramp up through the days/weeks ahead and position the risk metrics of portfolios appropriately until a more ideal setup to reach out on the risk spectrum (eg. away from bonds/gold and towards our four desired sectors to be exposed) is revealed.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The return of the meme-stock craze
- The downfall of consumer loan activity
- Business loans and the implications for industrial sector stocks ahead of their optimal holding period
- REITs
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for October 23
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.83.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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