Stock Market Outlook for October 29, 2025
Poor breadth providing concern pertaining to the near-term support of the equity market.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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China Fund, Inc. (NYSE:CHN) Seasonal Chart
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF (NYSE:PEJ) Seasonal Chart
US Foods Holding Corp. (NYSE:USFD) Seasonal Chart
Molson Coors Canada Inc. (TSE:TPX/B.TO) Seasonal Chart
Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. (NASD:NVMI) Seasonal Chart
DR Horton Inc. (NYSE:DHI) Seasonal Chart
Unitedhealth Group, Inc. (NYSE:UNH) Seasonal Chart
Fox Corporation (NASD:FOXA) Seasonal Chart
Super Micro Computer, Inc (NASD:SMCI) Seasonal Chart
Advanced Semiconductor (NYSE:ASX) Seasonal Chart
Boston Properties, Inc. (NYSE:BXP) Seasonal Chart
NXP Semiconductor N.V. (NASD:NXPI) Seasonal Chart
Installed Building Products Inc. (NYSE:IBP) Seasonal Chart
Amcor plc (NYSE:AMCR) Seasonal Chart
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (TSE:IVN.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Headlines surrounding NVDIA (NVDA) fuelled further enthusiasm in the Technology sector on Tuesday, driving major benchmarks heavy in the market segment to fresh record highs. The S&P 500 Index ended up by just less than a quarter of one percent, elevating further above the 20-day moving average (~6718). The variable hurdle had kept the short-term trend off of the April lows intact. The 50-day moving average (6612) has so far mitigated a more serious downfall as the pullback that many were hoping for in order to add to risk exposure for the end of the year fails to produce results of significance. While gains at the aggregate level continue, breadth is becoming increasingly poor, leaving a few players in this market to perform the heavy lifting heading into the start of the best six months of the year performance for stocks. The result contributes to our rather unsettled position that we are burdened by. While the segments of the market that we continue to target in our weekly chart books remain correctly dialed in, we have been hesitant to signal the all-clear towards broader risk exposure, as has historically been easy to do at this time of year. October is the time of year when fear/volatility hit a peak and buying into the unease is typically the prudent approach. Last year, the “all-clear” signal was revealed at the start of November and we were subsequently forced to reign in risk around the start of February ahead of the equity market pullback that denied a positive outcome to the best six month trade last year. For now, we continue to lean on our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid, which continues to show far more ideas worthy to buy than to sell, but advocating to increase portfolio sensitivity to the broader market at this point, aligned with the average start to the best six months of the year performance, is difficult to do. The more ideal entry points for an intermediate-term (multi-month) holding period can be pegged around rising 20-week moving averages, which major market benchmarks are stretched well above. This is not negative, but rather less than ideal to assure that we’re ramping up equity exposure at preferable risk-reward points.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- NYSE Advance-Decline Volume
- Percent of stocks trading above 50-day moving averages on the decline
- Number of 52-week highs in the market
- Relative performance of the Equal Weight S&P 500 Index has fallen to the lowest level since 2008
- Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the distorted messaging that the seasonal adjustment factor provided for August
- Investor sentiment
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.74.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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