Margin debt has surged through the first three quarters of the year by the most since 1999, pointing to a market that has been chased higher by leverage.

Stock Market Outlook for October 31, 2025

Margin debt has surged through the first three quarters of the year by the most since 1999, pointing to a market that has been chased higher by leverage.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Vanguard Industrials ETF (NYSE:VIS) Seasonal Chart

Mega Uranium Ltd. (TSE:MGA.TO) Seasonal Chart

Adentra Inc. (TSE:ADEN.TO) Seasonal Chart

Invesco Dynamic Pharmaceuticals ETF (NYSE:PJP) Seasonal Chart

AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. (NYSE:AMN) Seasonal Chart

Century Aluminum Co. (NASD:CENX) Seasonal Chart

Xencor, Inc. (NASD:XNCR) Seasonal Chart

iShares Asia 50 ETF (NASD:AIA) Seasonal Chart

The Markets

After a number of days of strength, Technology worked to weigh on broad market benchmarks on Thursday following a lacklustre reaction to earnings and no further developments from a trade meeting between US and China leaders. The S&P 500 Index ended down by nearly one percent, turning back toward the 20-day moving average (~6732) that it had been elevating above in recent days. The variable hurdle had kept the short-term trend off of the April lows intact. The 50-day moving average (6630) has so far mitigated a more serious downfall as the pullback that many were hoping for in order to add to risk exposure for the end of the year fails to produce results of significance. While benchmarks are remaining supported, breadth is becoming increasingly poor, leaving few players in this market to perform the heavy lifting heading into the start of the best six months of the year performance for stocks. The result contributes to our rather unsettled position that we are burdened by. While the segments of the market that we continue to target in our weekly chart books remain correctly dialed in, we have been hesitant to signal the all-clear towards broader risk exposure, as has historically been easy to do at this time of year. October is the time of year when fear/volatility hit a peak and buying into the unease is typically the prudent approach. Last year, the “all-clear” signal was revealed at the start of November and we were subsequently forced to reign in risk around the start of February ahead of the equity market pullback that denied a positive outcome to the best six month trade last year. For now, we continue to lean on our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid, which continues to show far more ideas worthy to buy than to sell, but advocating to increase portfolio sensitivity to the broader market at this point, aligned with the average start to the best six months of the year performance, is difficult to do. The more ideal entry points for an intermediate-term (multi-month) holding period can be pegged around rising 20-week moving averages, which major market benchmarks are stretched well above. This is not negative, but rather less than ideal to assure that we’re ramping up equity exposure at preferable risk-reward points.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

Short-term topping patterns on the charts of 5 out of the 11 sectors in the market

Rebalance risks in Technology before year-end

The rise in Margin Debt and Credit Balances in investor accounts

Natural Gas

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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.80.

To be released…

We are busy placing the finishing touches on our monthly report for November, providing you with everything that you need to know to navigate the market through the month(s) ahead. Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox on Friday.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today: