Stock Market Outlook for November 21, 2025
Seasonality about to turn supportive for stocks: Thanksgiving week historically delivers gains averaging 0.67% for the S&P 500 Index.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF (NYSE:ERTH) Seasonal Chart
SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF (NYSE:RWR) Seasonal Chart
Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. (NYSE:PK) Seasonal Chart
DaVita Inc. (NYSE:DVA) Seasonal Chart
ADTRAN, Inc. (NASD:ADTN) Seasonal Chart
Veeco Instruments, Inc. (NASD:VECO) Seasonal Chart
Canadian Solar Inc. (NASD:CSIQ) Seasonal Chart
Comerica, Inc. (NYSE:CMA) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks charted a striking reversal on Thursday as the optimism that surrounded earnings from NVDIA (NVDA) failed to support the market and concerns surrounding the downfall in cryptocurrencies weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 Index posted a decline of 1.56%, charting a bearish engulfing candlestick candlestick below its 20-day moving average (6772), a variable hurdle that was tested at the highs of the day. The upside gap that was charted following the opening bell was immediately closed and violated, portraying a market that is still expressing greater respect to levels of resistance than support. Reaction to the two important zones of gap resistance continues to be seen (~6760 and ~6830), providing hurdles that short-term traders have been using to peg negative bets against. The bears will have to contend positive seasonality ahead with gains the norm for market benchmarks during the US Thanksgiving holiday week, leaving the bias to use the weakness to buy into risk rather than sell out of it. As we have been emphasizing, the 20-week moving average at 6544 has been the desired risk-reward point to adding new risk exposure to portfolios and the large-cap benchmark is intersecting with this point now. We continue to lean heavily on our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid, which continues to show far more ideas worthy to buy than to sell.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- US Thanksgiving Week performance for stocks
- The action we are taking in the Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
- US Employment Situation and the lag that has developed versus the seasonal norm
- Weekly Jobless Claims and the scrutiny that is required of this economic metric ahead
- US Existing Home Sales and how it could portend to the seasonal trade in home construction stocks this fall
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended neutral at 1.00.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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