Stock Market Outlook for November 26, 2025
Seasonal peak in the Dollar lining up as a near-term tailwind for stocks, but warning signs for 2026 are mounting.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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GMV Minerals Inc. (TSXV:GMV.V) Seasonal Chart
CleanSpark, Inc. (NASD:CLSK) Seasonal Chart
Martinrea Intl Inc. (TSE:MRE.TO) Seasonal Chart
Tennessee Valley Authorit (NYSE:TVC) Seasonal Chart
Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSE:XTC.TO) Seasonal Chart
Valeura Energy Inc. (TSE:VLE.TO) Seasonal Chart
Cascades, Inc. (TSE:CAS.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
The rally that started on Friday spilled into a third session as the strains that gripped markets previously (eg. the liquidity crunch, rotation from technology, fed rate concerns) alleviated and the positivity that is notorious for the US Thanksgiving holiday week takes hold. The S&P 500 Index advanced by 0.91%, moving back to the levels that were charted following the positive earnings reaction to NVDIA (NVDA) last week; a level of horizontal resistance from the past two weeks can be seen at 6770. Beyond the aforementioned hurdle, gap resistance around 6830 is one to watch. We’ll take things one step at a time and first the market needs to prove that it is no longer showing greater respect to levels of resistance than to levels of support. A violation of 6770 will be key. The bears selling into this zone will have to contend positive seasonality with gains the norm for market benchmarks through the start of December, leaving the bias to use the recent weakness to buy into risk rather than sell out of it. As we have been emphasizing, the 20-week moving average (~6550) has been the desired risk-reward point to adding new risk exposure to portfolios and the large-cap benchmark tested this point on Thursday. We continue to rely on our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid, which continues to show more ideas worthy to buy than to sell.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- US Dollar Index
- The significant rise in Margin Debt in investment accounts this year
- US Retail Sales
- Retail stocks and how to play them around the Black Friday event
- Visa Spending Momentum
- Case-Shiller Home Price Index
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.94.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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