Stock Market Outlook for December 12, 2025
Everything but Technology rally hinting of a major shift in the market, aligning with our playbook for stocks early in 2026.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Vermilion Energy Inc. (TSE:VET.TO) Seasonal Chart
BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Oil & Gas Index ETF (TSE:ZEO.TO) Seasonal Chart
BMO Equal Weight REITs Index ETF (TSE:ZRE.TO) Seasonal Chart
Amerigo Resources Ltd. (TSE:ARG.TO) Seasonal Chart
Bonterra Energy Corp. (TSE:BNE.TO) Seasonal Chart
Freehold Royalties Ltd. (TSE:FRU.TO) Seasonal Chart
Platinum Group Metals Ltd. (TSE:PTM.TO) Seasonal Chart
StealthGas (NASD:GASS) Seasonal Chart
CAE, Inc. (NYSE:CAE) Seasonal Chart
Vipshop Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:VIPS) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Asia ETF (NASD:EEMA) Seasonal Chart
Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (AMEX:HACK) Seasonal Chart
iShares Convertible Bond ETF (AMEX:ICVT) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (NASD:VXUS) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P MidCap 400 Equal Weight ETF (AMEX:GRPM) Seasonal Chart
Global X Pipelines & Energy Services Index ETF (TSE:PPLN.TO) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Stocks, as gauged by the S&P 500 Index, edged higher on Thursday, despite an absence of participation from the Technology sector. The S&P 500 Index gained two-tenths of one percent, continuing to solidify as support the range of the gap that was originally opened on October 27th around 6830. This span of support adds to the prior zone of gap support at 6770. The market continues to prove that it is no longer showing greater respect to levels of resistance than to levels of support, at least on an ultra-short-term timescale, and the time has come to attack the significant hurdles overhead, particularly as we get into the Santa Claus Rally period that starts next week (according to our own definition of the holiday driven influence). The major threshold on the upside to scrutinize is, quite obviously, the all-time high at 6920 that was charted at the end of October. The bears continue to contend with positive seasonality for this time of year with gains the norm for market benchmarks in December, but a softer period on the calendar through the first half of December has been playing out following the strong end of November performance. Perhaps with some uncertainty arising surrounding technology, so far everything is playing out well according to our playbook and we continue to embrace the new themes that are emerging to invest in (refer to our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid for ideas on how to position).
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Technology and AI Update
- Emerging Leadership: Cyclicals and Commodities
- Tech Outlook going forward
- Defensive Opportunity in Health Care
- The surge in weekly jobless claims
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.83.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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