Stock Market Outlook for January 6, 2026
The market is continuing to emphasize its cyclical focus as the Santa Claus Rally period (according to our definition) seeks to conclude with a strong gain.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Seasonal Chart
Marten Transport, Ltd. (NASD:MRTN) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF (AMEX:SPHQ) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Stocks shook off concerns pertaining to the escalation of geopolitical tensions and pushed higher heading into the first full week of 2026. The S&P 500 Index posted a gain of around two-thirds of one percent, gaping back above horizontal resistance presented by the prior 52-week closing highs around 6900. The benchmark continues to advance off of moving average support presented by the 20 and 50-day, providing variable hurdles that traders have been willing to step in around. End of October gap resistance is now turning into support around 6830 and, until it is broken, playing on the long-side of this market remains appropriate. The end of the Santa Claus rally period (according to our definition of the span) is near and the period is still firmly positive (up ~1.25%); barring a shock through the days ahead, the broad market seasonal play looks set to close out with a return that is inline with the average performance between December 15th and January 6th. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we oversee at Castlemoore, we remain fully invested in the equity market and the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid have been capturing the strength that has leached into the market from the November 20th lows.
Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.
- Currencies
- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
- ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors
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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Market Overview & Technicals
- Seasonality, Risk Tone & Near-Term Outlook
- Momentum Warnings & 2026 Framework
- Our weekly Chart Books update and what has been added to our list of Accumulate candidates this week
- Our complete list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Currency & Cross-Asset Shifts
- Precious Metals: Profit-Taking
- Other Notes
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.84.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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