Stock Market Outlook for January 29, 2026
Treasury yields are firming above the neckline to a head-and-shoulders bottoming pattern, threatening to weigh on high valuation stocks (eg. Technology) through their period of seasonal weakness later in February.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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New Found Gold Corp. (AMEX:NFGC) Seasonal Chart
VictoryShares Dividend Accelerator ETF (NASD:VSDA) Seasonal Chart
GFL Environmental Inc (TSE:GFL.TO) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Stocks closed little changed on Wednesday as investors braced for the onslaught of earnings after the closing bell and digested the FOMC rate decision that was released intraday. The S&P 500 Index was essentially unchanged, down by a single basis point (0.01%) after charting another fresh all-time intraday high during the session above 7000; the benchmark pulled back almost immediately following a test of this important level of psychological resistance. Previous October gap resistance turned support around 6830 has been keeping us engaged with equity exposure until definitively broken. We remain on the lookout for a potential shift of the market’s character ahead where levels of resistance hold greater weight than support, but, despite the threats, nothing has been revealed yet; should this become confirmed, looking to trim equity exposure will become prudent, bracing for the kind of volatility that is average around this time of year. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we oversee at Castlemoore, there have been no trades that have been considered to be required and we continue to benefit from our pro-cyclical and commodity oriented stance. We continue to tailor towards the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that have been capturing the strength and rotation that has filtered into the market from the November 20th lows.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Market Action & Technical Backdrop
- Fed, Rates & Yield Curve Implications
- Inflation, Commodities & Bond Positioning
- Emerging Risk Aversion Signals: Consumer Staples & Utilities
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.74.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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